Why This Is Bold: Davante Adams scored 12 touchdowns last year and is being selected in the fourth round of most drafts.

Why This Will Happen: You ever play a game of poker where you just can't lose? Where you just keep getting good hand after good hand after good hand?

That was Davante Adams last year.

According to our Net Expected Points model, Adams' 90.08 Reception NEP total last year showed us that he looked more like a player who should have scored between 6 and 7 touchdowns rather than the 12 he actually tallied. Of course, Aaron Rodgers was and still is his quarterback, but a player who scores 12 times on fewer than 1,000 yards is bound to regress. Because what Adams did was pretty rare: in NFL history, only 10 wide receivers have scored 12 or more touchdowns without hitting the 1,000-yard receiving mark. (Two of those receivers had Rodgers throwing them the ball, with James Jones being the other one.)

The bold prediction here is the result of that regression, but also the fact that Green Bay has some natural competition for volume in the offense. Randall Cobb still exists, Jordy Nelson is obviously still there, and Martellus Bennett is arguably the best tight end they've had since Rodgers became starter.