Why This Is Bold: Coleman scored 11 touchdowns last year, so predicting just 5 is a massive drop.

Why This Will Happen: To put it simply, Coleman had unsustainable touchdown production last year. An average running back rushed for a score on every 31.54 carries and for every 131.15 rushing yards in 2017. Coleman's rates were 14.75 carries and 65.00 rushing yards. Among the 270 100-plus attempt running back seasons over the last six years, Coleman's attempts per touchdown and rushing yards per touchdown rates were fifth- and second-lowest, or fifth- and second-most extreme.

Through the air, Coleman scored three more times while averaging 13.58 yards per reception. Over the last six years, we've had 374 running back seasons where the back saw 20 or more targets. Coleman's 2016 ranks fourth-highest in yards per reception.

Like I said, what he did last season just wasn't sustainable. With regression hitting on all fronts, we shouldn't automatically assume he's going to be a huge touchdown scorer.