Average Draft Position (ADP): 209
Pick/Round: 18.05
It's no secret -- the Arizona Cardinals are looking to bounce back in a big way this season. Despite heavy passing volume in 2016 with 597 drop backs, Carson Palmer's Passing NEP per drop back of 0.11 was below the league average, and he ranked only 19th among quarterbacks with 400-plus drop backs.
That's a stark contrast to his 2015 campaign, which included a 0.32 Passing NEP per drop back (second best among signal-callers with 400-plus drop backs), and second with a 52.58% Passing Success Rate.
With Michael Floyd departing for the Minnesota Vikings, and John Brown still dealing with a health issue, that's 143 combined targets that need to be addressed. That could put J.J. Nelson in a great spot to produce. It makes even more sense when looking at the targets he saw down the stretch last season.
| Name | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Nelson | 11 | 7 | 12 | 30 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 9 | 4 | 7 | 20 |
| David Johnson | 5 | 7 | 4 | 16 |
In Weeks 15-17, Nelson led the team in targets in each week, and by a wide margin. Nelson could have some sneaky value in an offense that loves to chuck the ball, and you can get that virtually for free.