The stars seem to finally be aligning for the breakout season so many have been waiting for out of Miami Dolphins receiver DeVante Parker. After two years of flashing potential -- yet playing second fiddle to Jarvis Landry -- the former first-round pick seems primed for a coming out party. Much of this is based on offseason tropes about his work ethic and dedication (he's no longer skipping leg day), but as the great Sigmond Bloom often says, narrative belongs in fantasy football, and narratives are all over the place for Parker.
Narrative number one: In addition to his newfound dedication to his craft, the Dolphins' front office continues to drag its feet on offering Landry a contract extension, and there seems to be some concern that perhaps the team doesn't value him as a top-10 receiver. The problem, though, is that Landry wants to be paid like a top-10 receiver, and money motivates.
Narrative number two: A history of offenses led by Miami head coach Adam Gase could give the impression that he would prefer the offense run through a prototypical outside receiver, rather than the slot receiver, regardless of how talented Landry is at that role.
When Gase was the offensive coordinator for the Denver Broncos in 2014 and 2015, his troupes targeted Demaryius Thomas an average of 163 times per season, and he was dominant as Peyton Manning's primary target. The secondary target on those teams (Eric Decker in 2014 and Emmanuel Sanders in 2015) averaged 138 targets, and once again played primarily on the outside. Wes Welker played a significant role as well as the slot receiver, with 111 targets in 2013, but it was evident that the offense ran through the bigger, faster weapons on the outside.
In his one season as the offensive coordinator for the Chicago Bears, Gase, with Jay Cutler at the helm, had Alshon Jeffery on pace for 167 targets had he played a full 16 game season (he played in just nine contests). The slot receiver on that team, Eddie Royal, finished fifth on the team in targets with just 50, behind tight end Martellus Bennett, running back Matt Forte, and outside receiver Marquess Wilson.
In 2016, however, that wasn't the case, and Landry once again led the team with 131 targets, with Parker coming in at 87 and deep threat Kenny Stills hitting 81. Based on this history, it appears that a Gase offense would prefer to funnel targets to an outside receiving weapon.
Narrative number three: What becomes intriguing is how much newly-arrived quarterback Jay Cutler will change the receiver pecking order as he takes over from the injured Ryan Tannehill.
In limited action this preseason, we've seen Cutler’s willingness to chuck the ball downfield, and there is no doubt about his ability to support multiple options in the passing game, as was the case in 2013 and 2014. It isn't that hard to tell a story in which a gunslinging Cutler comes in for the much more conservative Tannehill and peppers Parker with targets, trusting him to win contested balls and make plays down the field.
Even further, Parker saw his volume and efficiency go up considerably between his first and second years, even if he wasn't as effective at making big plays. His receptions more than doubled from 26 to 56, and his catch rate went up from a subpar 52 percent to a much more respectable 63.64 percent. His 72-yard reception over Philadelphia Eagles corner Ronald Darby this preseason was an impressive glimpse of his potential when given the chance to win jump balls over smaller defenders.
That was something Cutler was very fond of doing in Chicago with the towering Jeffrey (6'3") and Brandon Marshall (6'4") -- and the 6'3" Parker certainly resembles that type of player. In fact, when asked about his new teammate, Cutler described the third year receiver as "[a] kind of a faster Alshon, a little bit."
As Parker now enters his third season, rededicated to his craft and with much stronger calves, the writing appears on the wall for a breakout season. With an average draft position (ADP) currently sitting in round six for standard 12-team leagues, I am doing everything I can to draft this future star.
Note: Landry is currently under investigation for possible battery involving his girlfriend, and that case is expected to be resolved next week. While the indication right now is that no legal charges will be filed, the NFL has a higher standard within its conduct policy and could look to suspend Landry.