Forget Ezekiel Elliott. If there is a suspended running back you want on your 2017 fantasy football roster, it's the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Doug Martin. Suspended for the first three games of the season for violating the league's policy on performance enhancing drugs, perhaps no back in the league has had a more enigmatic start to their career.
The 2012 first-round pick took the league by storm as a rookie, finishing behind only Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster in overall fantasy points that year. In 2015, he once again finished third in fantasy scoring, rushing for over 1,400 yards in both of those seasons. So what happened during the other three years he was in the league?
While some of the specifics aren't public, we know that substance abuse issues caused not only his suspension late in the 2016 season, but also led to problems with fitness and focus. Injuries also played a significant factor during those three lost years, and he played in just 25 of a possible 48 games. He was clearly out of shape early last season, and his play reflected that, as he was significantly out-performed by Jacquizz Rodgers.
After entering a treatment facility this past winter, Martin has indicated that his issues were behind him and his body is in great shape. The team seems to be taking him at his word, working him as the lead back throughout training camp and supporting him during the process.
Bottom line, when he's right, there are few backs who are more productive than Martin, who received 319 carries as a rookie and 288 in his 2015 season. In terms of volume alone, that makes him a top-12 running back, with just 11 backs seeing more than 250 touches during the 2016 season. And considering he is coming off the board 48th overall in standard 12-team leagues, the bargain you are getting is worth the risk.
In terms of efficiency, the 2016 Tampa Bay passing attack was the 11th most effective, with an Adjusted Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per pass of 0.16. (NEP, which you can read more about in our glossary, helps us determine the number of real points each skill position player is adding for his team.) And that was with a second-year quarterback (Jameis Winston) throwing to Mike Evans, an undrafted tight end out of Harvard in Cameron Brate, and an undrafted slot receiver in Adam Humphries. The team is expected to be even more explosive this season following the additions of DeSean Jackson and rookies Chris Godwin (third round) and O.J. Howard (first round).
Martin has never had the benefit of such a prolific passing game, yet has still been a top fantasy option when healthy and fit. While never the most effective back based on our metrics, the volume and his ability has combined to allow him to be an extremely valuable fantasy asset.
And while his offensive line is projected to be bad once again by PFF, it is likely improved from Martin's productive 2015 season given the addition of guard J.R. Sweezy, who spent all of 2016 injured after being a highly paid free agent. The rest of the line is almost identical to that 2015 season, except that the two rookies starting at guard (Ali Marpet) and tackle (Donovan Smith) are now third-year players.
When he's not right, sure, Martin has been atrocious. Only Chris Ivory was worse on a per-rush basis in 2016 for backs with more than 100 carries, and his -28.49 Rushing NEP was only better than the completely ineffective Todd Gurley (-34.40).
There is plenty of downside for Martin, but if you’re asking if I’d rather have Martin or Danny Woodhead off an ACL, LeGarrette Blount, Paul Perkins, or Eddie Lacy, I’m taking Martin every time. I can easily add Rodgers late in my draft to get me through the ex-Muscle Hamster's three-game suspension.
When Martin is on, he’s a top-3 fantasy running back and a season changer. All indications in Tampa are that he is healthy, in shape, and mentally right coming off the life-changing circumstances of the past eight months.
Not many mid-round running backs offer you that type of ceiling.