When I get to the later portions of my redraft leagues and I'm searching for potential running backs to stash, I always start by looking at the most inefficient incumbent backs, then evaluate their job stability and the quality of the option behind them. This is the model that helped me land players like Jay Ajayi, Jordan Howard, and LeGarrette Blount in 2016.
The most inefficient incumbents this season who haven’t already lost their jobs (see Chris Ivory or Rashad Jennings) include Todd Gurley and Lamar Miller, but given their respective team's investments, they seem fine. That leaves Doug Martin, Terrance West, and Rob Kelley as backs with the potential to lose their starting gig given last season's inefficiencies.
I have trouble stomaching a bet on the Baltimore Ravens offense or their backup running back Javorius Allen and, as noted, I love Martin, so I'll target the Washington Redskins shaky backfield.
While a compelling PPR case can be made for taking third down back Chris Thompson, I'm more interested in identifying the next potential top-12 rusher, and I'm skeptical that Thompson has that type of upside.
But Samaje Perine might.
As a refresher, the Redskins began the 2016 season with Matt Jones, a former third-round pick, entrenched as the starter. And despite several really effective games for the former Florida Gator, he found himself benched and forever in the doghouse after fumbling three times in five games. The team inserted undrafted rookie Rob Kelley, who proceeded to plod (and not fumble) his way to a decidedly average season.
Kelley's Rushing NEP per rush of -0.02 isn't terrible, nor was his 4.2 yards per carry average. Yet he produced only a 37.50 percent Success Rate, which is really poor, and fell well short of Matt Jones' 45.45 percent rate. (Rushing Success Rate is the percentage of carries which result in positive NEP.)
Despite starting nine games, Kelley finished the season with just 12 receptions, an indication that the team simply saw him as a non-factor in the passing game. Additionally, 31 percent of his fantasy scoring output during his run as the starter came during a 3-touchdown performance against the Green Bay Packers.
As an athlete, Kelley's best comparison according to Player Profiler is Matt Asiata, and he finished in the fourth percentile for Burst Score and just the 24th percentile for Speed Score. And while he has reportedly slimmed down this season, you will never mistake him for an exciting athlete. When the best trait you have is that you don't fumble, don't be surprised if you are constantly on the verge of being replaced by the new and shiny player on the roster.
Sure, Perine is also not an explosive athlete, but he does possess more natural burst and ability as a back. He broke the Oklahoma career rushing yard record with 4,122 yards in just three seasons -- and that was while sharing the backfield with ultra-talent Joe Mixon over the past two years. As a freshman, he finished his season with 1,713 yards and 21 touchdowns, and the Redskins took a chance on the bowling ball of a prospect in the fourth round. At 5'11" and 233 pounds, Perine is a load to bring down, and excels at running through tackles and gaining yards after contact.
While Perine looked every bit the rookie in his first preseason action, fumbling and dropping a pass, he redeemed himself the following week with 74 total yards on 9 touches, including a 29-yard-reception. It may take him a few weeks to earn a part in the rotation, but the talent is certainly there for the young back to earn a significant role by the end of the season. And he doesn't have to be an All-Pro type of prospect to climb to the top of the depth chart. He just needs to be above average.
If you have space on your bench for a stash candidate like Perine, he is a good bet to provide value should Rob Kelley continue to plod his way to mediocrity. At his current ADP of 112th overall in 12-team standard leagues, the investment is easy to stomach considering the return he could provide.