As mentioned a couple of times, there should be plenty of interest in Todd Gurley this week. That interest is easy to comprehend. He's at home, his team is favored, they're facing a team with a poor defense, and his offense should take steps forward this year.
What if you could get all of that in a player on an offense that was already good last year? What if he'll cost you just $300 more? That's the situation for DeMarco Murray this week against the Oakland Raiders.
The Raiders finished last year ranked 21st in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, just a few slots ahead of the Colts team that Gurley will face. Oakland allowed eight separate rushers to rack up at least 90 yards rushing against them, including three games in which they allowed at least 150 yards from scrimmage. One of those outings was by Murray, himself, in Week 3.
The Raiders have spent plenty of draft capital on the defense in recent years, but most of that has gone into the secondary. Three of their four picks within the first two rounds the past two years have been either a cornerback or safety.
They didn't address the need in free agency, either. Not only did they spend more money on a long snapper than any defensive player, but they lost defensive tackle Stacy McGee to Washington. As a result, the team has a pair of rookies starting up the middle with third-rounder Eddie Vanderdoes at defensive tackle and fifth-rounder Marquel Lee at middle linebacker. Some growing pains should be expected.
As with Freeman, we do need to at least address the workload in this backfield. The Titans didn't spend a second-round pick on Derrick Henry last year to have him ride the bench, potentially putting a dent into Murray's bell-cow usage in 2017. If the preseason is any indication, Murray is still the top gun.
DeMarco Murray had 16 straight snaps with the Titans offense before Derrick Henry saw a single offensive snap
— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) August 27, 2017
That usage came in the team's third preseason game, the tuneup for the regular season. Until we have reason to believe otherwise, we should view Murray as being the workhorse on this team.
This game has the second-highest over/under of the slate with a tight spread. We're going to want exposure on both sides, and that could mean deferring to Murray's teammates instead. But with the way the running-back landscape is shaping up for this week, it seems likely that Murray will go underowned relative to his peers at the position. With everything working in his favor, we should be inclined to exploit that and plug him in.