ESPN Ownership: 6.5%
Throughout his career, Joe Flacco has been much better at home, and he's put up better numbers in Baltimore Ravens victories. So when he's a hefty home favorite, we have no choice but to get excited.
That's exactly the case this week as Baltimore is a 7.5-point home favorite, tied for the third-largest of the week, for their home date with the Cleveland Browns.
Here are Flacco's home/road splits.
| Split | Games | Yards Per Game | Touchdowns | Picks | Adjusted Yards/Attempt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 69 | 242.2 | 100 | 46 | 7.38 |
| Away | 70 | 227.3 | 83 | 72 | 5.77 |
And here are his splits in wins and losses.
| Split | Games | Yards Per Game | Touchdowns | Picks | Adjusted Yards/Attempt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins | 84 | 235.0 | 118 | 45 | 7.72 |
| Losses | 55 | 236.8 | 65 | 73 | 5.11 |
Like we said in the open, we want to target Flacco as a home favorite. Baltimore's 24.25-point implied total isn't awe-inspiring, but with their run game in flux, the Ravens -- who have led the league in pass attempts in each of the last two years -- may resort to the air fairly often.
Cleveland didn't get trounced by the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1, but they still had the week's 12th-worst defense, per our schedule-adjusted metrics. Our numbers had them as the NFL's second-worst defense in 2016.
We project Flacco as the week's QB18, and seeing as he's barely owned, he's an ideal streamer.