Over/Under: 40.5
Colts Implied Team Total: 19.75
Browns Implied Team Total: 20.75
As it stands right now, this game has the fourth-lowest over/under on the slate. In theory, that could make sense, as the Indianapolis Colts and Cleveland Browns average a combined 25 points per game. However, they're giving up a combined 53.5 points per game and both rank in the bottom 11 in Opponent-Adjusted Defensive Net Expected Points (NEP), so it wouldn't be surprising to see this game go over 40.5 points.
While you might suggest that the Andrew Luck-less Colts and Browns offenses simply aren't good enough to post big numbers regardless of the defensive matchups, history would suggest you're wrong. Since 2015, 50% of Colts games without Luck have exceeded this over/under. Last season's 1-15 Browns team topped this over/under in 63% of their games and scored at least 20 points in 44% of them. And they weren't playing against bottom-tier defenses in all of those games, like they are this week.
Essentially, the defenses in this game are terrible and the offensive players are cheap, meaning this could be a sneaky source of fantasy production. Particularly, the passing attacks are intriguing. According to our metrics, the Colts defense ranks fifth-worst against the pass this season, while the Browns rank eighth-worst. Last season, both ranked in the bottom three.
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts
FanDuel Price: $6,700
T.Y. Hilton has been a major disappointment thus far, but matchups against the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals certainly haven't done him any favors. A matchup against a secondary that has allowed opposing top receivers to catch 15 of 16 targets for 213 yards and a score might help turn his season in the right direction, though.
Because of Indy's lack of pass volume, Hilton's 13 targets don't jump off the page, but he has accounted for a 22.8% target market share, including three of the team's five red zone targets.
Also, it is worth noting that Indy upped their passing volume tremendously in Week 2 despite playing in a much more competitive game script. Even though they were trailing from the get-go in Week 1, they only dialed up 21 pass attempts with Scott Tolzien under center, as opposed to 36 passes for Jacoby Brissett the following week. With them currently listed as underdogs, it would make sense to again go with an aggressive passing attack against Cleveland's struggling secondary, which puts Hilton firmly in play for tournaments.
Rashard Higgins, WR, Cleveland Browns
FanDuel Price: $5,100
Rashard Higgins exploded onto the scene in Week 2, catching 7 of 11 targets for 95 yards. Those 11 targets accounted for a 26.2% target market share. With Corey Coleman on the Injured Reserve, expect Higgins to again be targeted heavily in Week 3.
The Colts made J.J. Nelson look like Antonio Brown last week, allowing 5 catches for 120 yards and a touchdown, so Higgins could certainly eat in this one. If looking for someone to pair with DeShone Kizer or to game stack with Jacoby Brissett and Indianapolis pass-catchers, Higgins is certainly your man.
Others to Consider
One of the main factors that makes this game intriguing is that both quarterbacks are willing to chuck it. Kizer ranks 4th in Average Intended Air Yards per attempt, while Brissett ranks 10th. To top it off, both also have impressive rushing ability. Our projections prefer Kizer, actually listing him as the second-best value among all quarterbacks this week, but both dudes are terrific values and certainly in play.
Jack Doyle was Brissett's favorite target early on, catching four of the quarterback's seven first-half completions. He finished with catching all 8 of his targets for 79 yards. The Browns allowed 2 touchdowns to Jesse James in Week 1, followed by 8 catches for 91 yards to Benjamin Watson in Week 2. He comes in as just the 16th-most expensive tight end on the slate and is one of the strongest plays at the position.