With Ty Montgomery this week, it's best to return to where we started: don't overthink it.
Montgomery was the chalk at running back in Week 2, but he came through with 110 yards from scrimmage and a pair of touchdowns. He did all that with both starting tackles inactive. Now, he heads back home with the Packers favored by 8.5 points over the Cincinnati Bengals, so you can bet your bottom we're headed right back to him.
Through two games, the Bengals have seen tons of volume from opposing running backs. The Baltimore Ravens ran it a whopping 42 times in Week 1, and the Houston Texans followed suit with 35 attempts of their own last Thursday. The Bengals have largely held up well despite those circumstances, ranking 11th against the rush, but that's not necessarily a fair sample.
The Ravens lost half their team due to injury in the preseason, including a pair of offensive lineman. The Texans were starting a rookie quarterback and playing without left tackle, Duane Brown, who is in the midst of a holdout. You don't expect those teams to thrive. The Packers, though, have continued to do so despite their losses up front.
Through two weeks, the Packers are sixth in Adjusted Rushing NEP per play. Montgomery's yards-per-carry average isn't impressive at 3.1, but he still has the 14th-highest Success Rate of the 36 running backs with at least 15 attempts. He's accomplishing what the Packers need him to do, even if that isn't necessarily cropping up in his traditional stats.
All of that, though, is secondary to what draws us toward Montgomery in the first place: his role in the offense. He has played 88.0% of the team's snaps through two games, the mark of a workhorse. In eight career regular-season games with at least a 50% snap rate, Montgomery's averaging 16.5 FanDuel points per game. He gets work in the passing game to keep him viable in any game script, and he's tied to one of the most efficient quarterbacks in NFL history. What more could you possibly want?
On top of that, Montgomery just fits what we want out of a running back for DFS. He's at home, his team is a heavy favorite, and his offense will score points. When you toss in his meaty role, it's clear he's one of the best fantasy assets in the game.
Montgomery's not priced that way at $7,200, so he's going to be insanely popular yet again. But that doesn't really matter. He fits the mold of a DFS stud, and until he's priced that way, we are obligated to just keep on plugging this bad boy in.