Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Week 2 Salary: $9,200
Week 3 Salary: $9,400
Predictably, Tom Brady bounced back in a big way in Week 2. However, his price is now up to $9,400, despite a matchup against a Houston Texans defense that may be the most talented he's faced this season. Through the first two games, Houston's opponents (Blake Bortles and Andy Dalton) have completed just 55.4% of passes for a lone touchdown and a 174.5-yard average.
We can say with some certainty that Brady and this New England Patriots offense are at least a little bit better than Houston's two previous opponents. That doesn't change the fact that Brady is grossly overpriced, especially if Rob Gronkowski or Chris Hogan are forced to sit.
Brady never reached a price tag this expensive last season. At his current price, he would need 28.2 FanDuel points to reach three-times his salary-implied value, a feat he barely accomplished against the New Orleans Saints last week. In fact, our projections have Brady listed as the fourth-worst quarterback value on this slate, coming in ahead of the likes of Blake Bortles, Jay Cutler, and Eli Manning.
Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins
Week 2 Salary: $7,700
Week 3 Salary: $7,600
Quarterback again saw average prices increase more than any other position this week, with nearly a $100 bump. Despite that, Kirk Cousins actually saw his price drop. Given how bad Cousins has been, that might not be too surprising at first look. However, given how much influence Vegas lines traditionally play on salary changes, it is quite surprising to see Cousins priced down while playing in the game with the highest over/under on the slate (54.5 points) by a wide margin.
Cousins will look to turn his season around in a plus-matchup against the Oakland Raiders, who ranked 25th against the pass last year according to our opponent-adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP) metric. They have looked slightly better this season, but did allow the New York Jets to score twice through the air last week.
While a $100 drop in salary may not seem noteworthy, the fact that it comes prior to this game script certainly is. In a potential bounceback game, this is a great spot to target Cousins at his discounted salary.