Typically, targeting a defense that has Aaron Donald isn't a "matchup to exploit," which is kinda, ya know, the whole point of this. But there are a few elements that align to make Ezekiel Elliott a tremendous DFS option for this week.
The first reason is pricing. Both Elliott and Devonta Freeman are $8,500 on FanDuel, and Freeman figures to command a good chunk of ownership thanks to his hot start to the season. That ownership is fully justified with Freeman's insane red-zone usage, but we should give Elliott some attention, too.
Plenty of the factors in Freeman's favor are also cooking up value for Elliott. They're both at home and favored by at least six points. Both teams' implied team totals are among the top-five marks of the main slate, and the surrounding assets in the offense can help support a big game from the running back.
From a situation standpoint, there's not much difference between these two guys. Elliott also has a larger market share in his offense than Freeman does in his. It just hasn't turned into fantasy goodness yet.
To add to the appeal, Elliott's matchup -- even with Donald in the mix -- may be better than Freeman's. Check out what opposing running backs have done against the Los Angeles Rams this year compared to the Buffalo Bills' defense that Freeman will face. Rushing NEP per carry measures the expected points added on each rush, and Success Rate is the percentage of carries that increase the team's expected points for the drive.
| In 2017 | Carries | Rushing NEP per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBs vs. Rams | 89 | 0.01 | 28.1% |
| RBs vs. Bills | 55 | -0.16 | 27.3% |
The league-average Success Rate for running backs is 32.0%, so both teams have been better than average there, but the Rams have been prone to big plays, killing them in the overall efficiency.
Through three games, the Rams have already allowed 11 rushes to go for at least 10 yards, tied for the sixth-highest total in the league. They've allowed six rushes to go for 15-plus yards, and that total is tied for third. They may not give up a ton of successes, but they will certainly give up chunk plays.
Those big plays have been in short supply so far for Elliott, but the Cowboys have already faced two teams that were in the top 10 against the rush last year, per numberFire's metrics, and the third team they played -- the Broncos -- ranks third early on in 2017. This could be a great rebound spot for him.
Both Freeman and Elliott have the potential to blow up this week, and we should have shares of each on our rosters. But with Freeman's recent success likely giving a boost to his ownership, we'd be wise to give Elliott a good, long look.