Chris Carson is in a similar spot to Elliott: the matchup is merely okay, but everything else seems to say he's a stellar play. That should be enough to get us to pull the trigger at $6,600.
The opposing Colts enter this game ranked 19th against the rush, according to numberFire's metrics. That's roughly in the middle of the pack, which is why we can deem this matchup as being merely "okay." What's interesting, though, is that they have allowed the fourth-fewest points to opposing backs per game while giving up just 3.2 yards per carry. Doesn't this mean they should rank better than 19th?
That's where the "schedule-adjusted" portion of numberFire's metrics comes into play. The three running backs who have logged at least 10 carries against them rank 23rd, 36th, and 41st in Success Rate out of 44 running backs with at least 20 carries this year. You don't expect those guys to have a whole lot of success against any defense.
Carson hasn't necessarily been the model of efficiency just yet, sitting 29th in that category himself, but efficiency is always going to be lower on our checklist at running back. At the end of the day, he's clearly the top back for an offense that is favored by 13 points at home. Even when the matchup is tougher, we want a piece of that. This one happens to be a step below "tough," so it's hard to back off of Carson.
If you're wondering whether that "top back" dubbing is true, the Seahawks' usages should put that to bed. This backfield used to be muddy, but it's pretty obvious now that they view Carson most favorably.
In each game this year, Carson has played at least 53.1% of the snaps. That's despite facing negative game script in two of those, situations in which you'd assume C.J. Prosise would be the one getting snaps. In the one game they did win, Carson played 61.0% of the snaps, which is a respectable number for someone at his price. To make it even better, Prosise may not even be there to suck away the passing-down work.
#Seahawks RB CJ Prosise, who had tests on his ankle earlier this week, is not expected to play vs the #Colts, source said. He's week-to-week
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 27, 2017
They also seem to be comfortable giving Carson the rock when leading. They have run 40 offensive plays while leading, and 13 of those (32.50%) have been rushes for Carson. That's compared to his 21.99% overall market share for the full season. In a game script that figures to feature plenty of plays just like that, Carson should see massive volume.
With Joe Mixon and Wendell Smallwood on the slate, you've got cheaper options at running back. But neither Mixon nor Smallwood is at home, and they're not on teams that are heavily favored like Carson's. Carson also doesn't have a goal-line back lurking on his roster, an obstacle at play for both of the others. That should all align to make us want to fork over the extra salary to get Carson on our rosters.