Speaking of teams with unexpected offense/defense splits, have a look at Buffalo and Washington.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2.29 | 3-1 | 74.40% | 15 | 9 | -7 |
| 11 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3.51 | 2-2 | 55.80% | 13 | 5 | -8 |
| 10 | Philadelphia Eagles | 3.55 | 3-1 | 70.70% | 11 | 13 | -2 |
| 9 | Atlanta Falcons | 3.78 | 3-1 | 60.40% | 3 | 21 | -2 |
| 8 | Minnesota Vikings | 3.79 | 2-2 | 43.90% | 7 | 16 | 1 |
| 7 | Green Bay Packers | 3.95 | 3-1 | 60.00% | 8 | 14 | 3 |
| 6 | Buffalo Bills | 4.23 | 3-1 | 65.60% | 19 | 4 | 5 |
| 5 | Washington Redskins | 5.09 | 2-2 | 48.90% | 17 | 3 | 1 |
| 4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5.35 | 2-1 | 54.00% | 4 | 10 | 13 |
| 3 | Denver Broncos | 5.99 | 3-1 | 72.60% | 18 | 1 | -2 |
| 2 | New England Patriots | 6.62 | 2-2 | 65.80% | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | 7.14 | 4-0 | 91.30% | 2 | 8 | 3 |
We projected the Bills to be 10th in offense and 20th on defense after they finished 12th in yards gained per play and 19th in average gain allowed in 2016. Their passing game has been strong, ranking 7th in the league in NEP per drop back and 13th in net yards per attempt, but they're only gaining 3.4 yards per rush. Buffalo led the league here last year (5.1 yards per carry) and remains committed to the rush; only Jacksonville has more attempts on the ground.
This has made the inefficiency even more burdensome and is what has dragged down their NEP ranking. It hasn’t mattered, though, as the Bills are holding opponents to an average gain of 4.7 yards, which is 5th in the league.
Washington had a more dramatic projected split, with a preseason ranking of 6th on offense and 23rd on defense. As of now, the defense is leading the way in the nation’s capital, but turnover regression in both directions could have the team breaking down the way we thought it would going forward.
Kirk Cousins and company are just 17th in offensive NEP, but they have moved the ball well and are tied for 6th in yards per play (6.0). They would rank higher in NEP if not for a worse-than-average turnover rate.
The opposite is true of the defense, which is tied for 19th in yards per play (5.4) but 5th in turnovers per drive. Turnovers tend to be random events, so we should expect Washington’s offensive rank to climb while its defense trends towards the middle of the pack.
Washington was expected to finish firmly in the middle of the pack by some, but now they look like a legit NFC playoff contender.