The bottom of the list contains most of the usual suspects: Cleveland, San Francisco, Indianapolis, Miami, Chicago and the Jets. The gang’s all here!
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Cleveland Browns | -10.39 | 0-4 | 0.10% | 20 | 32 | -1 |
| 31 | San Francisco 49ers | -7.49 | 0-4 | 0.20% | 31 | 17 | 1 |
| 30 | Indianapolis Colts | -7.39 | 1-3 | 3.70% | 32 | 28 | -2 |
| 29 | Miami Dolphins | -6.44 | 1-2 | 4.60% | 28 | 29 | -2 |
| 28 | Chicago Bears | -5.67 | 1-3 | 2.10% | 26 | 19 | 2 |
| 27 | New York Jets | -5.38 | 2-2 | 10.20% | 21 | 26 | 2 |
| 26 | Los Angeles Rams | -3.98 | 3-1 | 36.50% | 5 | 27 | -4 |
| 25 | Arizona Cardinals | -3.76 | 2-2 | 20.30% | 30 | 23 | -7 |
| 24 | Tennessee Titans | -2.49 | 2-2 | 34.50% | 6 | 30 | -5 |
| 23 | Oakland Raiders | -1.61 | 2-2 | 15.00% | 14 | 22 | -3 |
You may be more surprised to see the Rams with this bunch, especially after they pulled off an impressive road win at Dallas. While the Rams did gain 6.1 yards per play, the 6.8 yards per play allowed by Los Angeles was less impressive.
To date, the Rams have indeed been an above average team and lead the NFC in point differential (+37). Much of this is owed to the performances of their special teams -- while they rank 5th in opponent-adjusted NEP per play on offense, they are 27th on defense.
In terms of total offensive NEP minus defensive NEP, they rank 16th at +7.8. Once we add in their total special teams NEP (which is 5th-best), the Rams move up to 11th, a good spot to be in for a squad that was one of the league's worst last year.
Things are certainly looking up for the Rams, but let’s hold off on treating them as one of the league’s upper-echelon teams.