Over/Under: 44.0
Steelers Implied Team Total: 26.25
Jaguars Implied Team Total: 17.75
The "Killer B's" haven't had much opportunity to buzz thus far. A team notorious for their improved play at home has opened the season with just one game at Heinz Field, and it was a tough matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. That could all change in Week 5, as the Pittsburgh Steelers get a home matchup against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that has plenty of talent but is coming off a loss to the New York Jets.
Pittsburgh's 26.25-point implied team total trails only the Cowboys on this slate, and a full-on Steelers stack is certainly in play.
Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
FanDuel Price: $9,500
At nearly $10,000, Le'Veon Bell is going to force you to find some value this week. Is the matchup and game script good enough to make him still a strong play, though?
As Raybon pointed out in his piece covering Vegas odds, "Winning teams rush for 35 more yards and double the touchdown output of losing teams, which equates to winners averaging roughly 6.5 more fantasy points per game. Favorites average a lower -- but still very significant -- figure of 2.8 more rushing fantasy points per game than underdogs."
In games Pittsburgh has won by at least eight points since 2015, Bell has averaged 25.5 carries for 114 yards, as opposed to 18.4 carries for 88 in other games. If he is looking at that type of volume as Pittsburgh plays with a lead against Jacksonville, Bell could be in for a huge game. No team has been worse against the rush this season than the Jags, who have allowed 166 rushing yards per game.
The Steelers showed a willingness to ride Bell into the ground last week, feeding him 39 touches. He turned those into 32.6 FanDuel points against a stout Baltimore Ravens defense, so if the volume is there again this week, he should go off.
Allen Hurns, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
FanDuel Price: $6,000
It was Marqise Lee who led the team in targets through the first two weeks without Allen Robinson, but Allen Hurns was putting up the numbers, catching 9 passes for 102 yards and 2 touchdowns in Weeks 2 and 3. Week 4 saw Hurns finally lead the team in targets (10), accounting for a strong 28.6% target market share for the Jags.
In games Jacksonville has lost by eight or more points since 2015, Blake Bortles has predictably been forced to chuck it more often, averaging 41.3 attempts for 267 yards, as opposed to 36 attempts for 245 yards in all other games. An increase in passing attempts would obviously mean more targets to go around, which could mean another week of double-digit looks for Hurns.
Pittsburgh has looked much improved against the pass this season, but they also have faced the likes of DeShone Kizer, Case Keenum, Mike Glennon, and Joe Flacco, so it is not out of the realm of possibility that they are still an average secondary. If looking for a way to bring it back on the other side of the ball and stack with Pittsburgh offensive players, Hurns is your best bet.
Others to Consider
Ben Roethlisberger ($7,900) has had a quiet start to the year and seems a bit pricey, but his home splits speak for themselves.
In eight home games in which the Steelers have won by at least eight points since 2015, Roethlisberger has averaged an obscene 3.3 passing touchdowns. On average, 1.1 of those went to Antonio Brown ($8,800), who has averaged 22.8 FanDuel points in home games that Big Ben has played in since 2015. The individual matchup with Jalen Ramsey isn't inviting, but the game script points toward Brown being a strong option.