Here at numberFire, we have a metric called Net Expected Points (NEP) that compares every single play over a season to how a league-average team should perform on that play. For more about NEP, check out our glossary.
Among all quarterbacks with more than one drop back this season, only Sam Bradford has more Passing NEP per drop back than Goff. Bradford, it should be noted, has played just one game all season, and that came against the New Orleans Saints, who rank 24th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per drop back.
Goff on the other hand, has started all four games for the Los Angeles Rams, averaging 268 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per contest, with a single interception all season. Check out how his totals from these first four games compare to his seven games last season, when his -0.28 Passing NEP per drop back ranked dead last among the 51 quarterbacks with at least 30 drop backs:
| Year | Games | Comp. | Att. | Pass Yards | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 7 | 112 | 205 | 1,089 | 5 | 7 |
| 2017 | 4 | 78 | 117 | 1,072 | 7 | 1 |
Goff is averaging 112.43 more yards, 0.79 more touchdowns, and 0.75 less interceptions per game than he did last season.
Our model projects Goff to throw for 3,131.79 yards, 21.64 touchdowns, and 9.89 interceptions over the remainder of the season.