NFL
5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 5

New York Jets' Passing Offense

Those studs we got to gush over earlier? They're gone. All of your heroes will eventually abandon you. Now, we enter the deep, dark hole of searching for value that this week leads us to a team we were expecting to tank entering the season. It may not be pretty, but there's reason to dig the New York Jets this week.

Most of the appeal in the Jets stems from their matchup with the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are the league's 32nd-ranked overall defense entering Week 4, having allowed the otherwise-stagnant attacks of the Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, and Cincinnati Bengals to pop off within the past three games. The Jets may not be good, but they can at least be on that level.

The main pain point for the Browns has been stopping opposing aerial attacks. While they rank 17th against the rush, they are dead last against the pass. This isn't to say that you should ignore Bilal Powell if Matt Forte sits again. It's more to show that a Josh McCown revenge game isn't as vomit-worthy as it may seem.

McCown currently sits 24th in Passing NEP per drop back among the 32 quarterbacks who have recorded at least 100 drop backs this season. That's not great, right? Well, it's still better than other quarterbacks who have shredded the Browns of late. Check out their full-season stats along with their fantasy performances against when facing Cleveland.

In 2017 Passing NEP per Drop Back Success Rate FanDuel Points Vs. CLE
Josh McCown 0.02 46.15% --
Jacoby Brissett -0.07 39.81% 27.76
Andy Dalton -0.09 45.26% 28.34
Joe Flacco -0.15 44.88% 15.58


And, remember, those are their full-season numbers, meaning their doggy-doo metrics include the treachery they brought down upon the Browns. McCown looks like the patron saint of sauciness when this is his competition.

Things get even a bit uglier if we split out their performances against the Browns and compare it to what they've done the rest of the season. This time, we'll include their Week 1 opponent, Ben Roethlisberger.

In 2017 Passing NEP per Drop Back Success Rate TDs INTs
Versus Browns 0.30 52.63% 9 2
Versus All Other Teams -0.10 38.06% 9 12


Whew, mamma. The closest 2016 comp to their -0.10 Passing NEP per drop back was Blaine Gabbert. That 0.30 Passing NEP per drop back against the Browns would have topped everyone except for Matt Ryan and Tom Brady. With McCown being the highest-ranking quarterback they've faced since Week 1, he should be able to do some damage against his former squad.

It is worth noting that this Browns defense has played its first four games without first overall pick Myles Garrett, and that script could flip this weekend.


On top of that, they could also get back linebacker Jamie Collins, though Collins missed practice again on Wednesday. Getting back those two would be huge. But it's clear that this defense is missing more than just two pieces.

McCown is just $6,800 this week. He could wind up completely flopping, but if he hits, he's getting you access to those high-priced studs that had us foaming at the mouth earlier. Why not take a shot on him?

If you do decide to go McCown, you'll have some decent stacking options here, and they're guys you can target as one-offs, as well, in non-McCown lineups. As always with teams facing the Browns, it starts with the tight end, which is Austin Seferian-Jenkins this week.

In the first four weeks, the Browns have already allowed both Jesse James and Tyler Kroft to have multi-touchdown games, and Benjamin Watson racked up 8 catches for 91 yards against them. They'll now face Seferian-Jenkins, who has played at least 75% of the snaps in each of his first two games off of suspension and has an 18.52% target market share since returning. He's priced up at $5,500, but that's fully palatable.

If you want to avoid any high ownership on Seferian-Jenkins, you can look to the wide receivers, instead. Specifically, Robby Anderson is interesting. He has 20.51% of the team's overall targets, but on throws 16-plus yards downfield, that number jumps to 57.14%. Anderson has averaged two deep balls per game this year. That gives him some fun upside, and for $5,400, he's another potential punt target to help you pay up elsewhere.

Prev

Related News

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 5

Brandon Gdula  --  Oct 5th, 2017

Week 5 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

Jacob Gibbs  --  Oct 5th, 2017

Fantasy Football Week 4 Market Share Report: Here Comes Dez Bryant

Jim Sannes  --  Oct 5th, 2017