Over/Under: 50.0

Saints Implied Team Total: 27.25

Lions Implied Team Total: 22.75

This projects to be one of the most low-scoring weeks of the season, as just one game is projected for more than 48 points. As a result, there is even more precedent to load up on a game such as this matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Detroit Lions, which features a 50-point over/under. New Orleans' implied team total is the 5th-highest on the slate and the highest among games with a single-digit spread.

Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

FanDuel Price: $8,600

Drew Brees hasn't had his usual dominant start to the season, but that could be in part due to the fact that three of his first four games have been road contests. Brees has seen some of the most drastic home/road splits over the years and should fare well in a return home this week.


The Lions didn't seem nearly as ferocious on the defensive end last week. After four weeks of looking like an improved defense (three of which were against Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, and Case Keenum), Detroit's defense resembled what we saw in 2016 last week. Cam Newton absolutely shredded them, completing 26 of 33 passes for 355 yards and 3 touchdowns.

If stacking this game, it should start with the home quarterback playing with a top-5 implied team total. Brees is a viable play in all formats.

Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints

FanDuel Price: $5,900

In all reality, the departure of Adrian Peterson doesn't open up that much for Mark Ingram, who was already seeing over 50% of the offensive snaps. Peterson had only accounted for 17.4% of the snaps and averaged 7.3 touches per game. Still, with Peterson out of the picture, it is officially just Ingram and Alvin Kamara's backfield, making Ingram's outlook similar to what we saw from him last year. If we could get Ingram for under $6,000 in a plus matchup and game script last season, he would definitely have been chalk.

While Ingram may be losing some passing game work to Kamara, he is the clear lead back, thus he should be the logical choice to benefit from a positive game script. That has held true in the past, as Ingram has averaged nearly three more carries, over 30 more yards, and 0.5 more touchdowns per game when New Orleans has won by 5 or more points since 2015.

Those numbers shouldn't come as much of a surprise. As Raybon pointed out in his piece covering Vegas odds, "Winning teams rush for 35 more yards and double the touchdown output of losing teams, which equates to winners averaging roughly 6.5 more fantasy points per game. Favorites average a lower -- but still very significant -- figure of 2.8 more rushing fantasy points per game than underdogs."

Others to Consider

Matthew Stafford ($8,500) could be an intriguing play against a suspect New Orleans secondary if he gets a clean bill of health heading into the weekend. While he appears to be on track to play, the fact that he is dealing with an injury and has a significantly lower implied team total makes it hard to justify paying just $100 less than you would for Brees in anything but tournaments.

Golden Tate ($7,600) seems a bit pricey given his modest production thus far, but he could definitely exploit this defense if Stafford is healthy. He has played significantly better in projected shootouts in the past, averaging 15.9 FanDuel points in games with an over/under of 50-plus points, as opposed to 9.8 in all other games. Marvin Jones ($5,900) is coming off of a season-high 8 targets and seems a bit underpriced given the matchup. He has yet to post a blow-up performance this season, perhaps due to a tough string of cornerback matchups. This spot against the Saints should provide him much more room to operate, and he could end up being one of the strongest value plays on the slate at his price.

Ameer Abdullah ($6,400) has posted some strong stat lines recently, but does not appear worth his salary in this one. He has accounted for just 41.8% of the snaps over the past three weeks as Detroit has started to get Zach Zenner more involved. Theo Riddick has just two fewer snaps during that span, so it is likely best to just ignore this three-headed backfield. Kamara ($5,800) has looked explosive in recent weeks and may end up being the most-owned of any running back in this game. However, he has played just 30.5% of the team's snaps since out-snapping Ingram in Week 1, which makes him hard to trust in anything but tournaments, in spite of his 20-point FanDuel outburst last week.