Lamar Miller logged 87.5% of backfield snaps for the Houston Texans in their loss to the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday, the third-highest percentage among all running backs in Week 5. Though that may seem like a fluke given his 67.86% snap rate the previous week, it's clear he's being treated as a true bell-cow if you look closer.
Miller out-touched teammate D'Onta Foreman 20 to 5 (amassing 108 total yards) until the Texans took a 37-14 lead over the Tennessee Titans. Only when Houston had that cushion did Foreman receive additional reps, out-touching Miller 9-3 the rest of the way. It's Miller, though, who's received eight red zone carries over the last two weeks.
Assuming Miller is the workhorse back Sunday, note that he's scheduled to be the lead back in a home game that's seen its projected total rise from 44 to 47 since initially opening.
The Cleveland Browns are quietly the ninth-ranked defense according to Adjusted Defensive Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP), but no matter: totals that have increased at least two points this season have finished an average of eight points over or under the closing line. This is laid out in the below table.
| Opponent | Home | Opening Total | Closing Total | Difference | Points Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | Los Angeles Chargers | 45.5 | 47.5 | 2 | 34 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | Green Bay Packers | 45.5 | 47.5 | 2 | 51 |
| Atlanta Falcons | Detroit Lions | 48.5 | 51 | 2.5 | 56 |
| Los Angeles Rams | Dallas Cowboys | 46.5 | 51 | 4.5 | 65 |
| New York Giants | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 43.5 | 45.5 | 2 | 48 |
| New York Jets | Cleveland Browns | 39 | 41.5 | 2.5 | 31 |
| Cleveland Browns | Houston Texas | 44 | ? | ? | ? |
It only helps Miller that Houston has averaged the fourth-highest run rate in the red zone (56%) since Deshaun Watson was named starter in Week 2.