Over/Under: 46.5
Cowboys Implied Total: 25.50
49ers Implied Total: 21.00
Can a game featuring an 0-6 team truly be profitable in DFS? Yes, it can. Quietly, the Dallas Cowboys/San Francisco 49ers showdown features the 6th-highest (tied) over/under on the slate, and a variety of underpriced players who are ripe for the picking. While the Cowboys' options are preferable in seasonal leagues, production could come from unexpected (and inexpensive) places in daily formats.
Pierre Garcon, WR, San Francisco 49ers
FanDuel Price: $6,700
The San Francisco 49ers are a 4.5 point underdog with a rookie quarterback making his first career NFL start. This game isn't going to be pretty, but in order for the 49ers to keep pace in this one, they're going to have to throw a ton. C.J. Beathard attempted 36 passes in relief of Brian Hoyer last week, and more of the same is likely in order this weekend.
Enter Pierre Garcon.
The free agent acquisition has been steady and reliable in 2017 with 33 receptions for 434 yards. The 56 targets he's received are the 6th-highest total in the NFL and the 23 percent target share he's enjoyed is more than robust. In fact, Garcon has received double digit looks in four games this season, and that number is likely to increase this weekend. If he maintains the average of 11.5 targets he's seen over the last two contests, you'll be feeling like:
WHAT A CATCH @PierreGarcon! pic.twitter.com/OncdSvNZb4
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) October 15, 2017
A true target hog on a team that's averaging 42 pass attempts per game, he is a quality DFS option against a Dallas Cowboys defense that ranks 16th against the pass and is allowing 0.13 Adjusted Passing NEP per play on the season. We project him to be the the 5th-highest scoring wideout of the week with 13.5 FanDuel points and he can be started for WR23 cost. The value is too strong to ignore.
Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco 49ers
FanDuel Price: $6,700
Yep, we're going all-in on the 49ers this week. One week after getting out-touched by Matt Breida, Carlos Hyde reclaimed his featured role in the backfield, taking 13 carries for 28 yards and 2 scores, while adding 5 catches for 47 yards in the process.
In spite of forcefully denied rumors that the team is featuring him in an attempt to trade him, another heavy workload is likely in order. If you thought the Cowboys were generous against the pass, you might be surprised to hear that they are allowing 0.10 Adjusted Rushing NEP per play, which is tied for the worst total in the league. Hyde couldn't ask for a better draw.
Even if the 49ers fall behind and are forced to throw, Hyde will be relied upon to support his young signal caller as receiver. In fact, his 29 targets on the season ranked 10th among running backs, so there will be plenty of opportunities for the fourth-year man to rack up yards. We project Hyde to finish as the 11th-highest scoring running back on the slate, with 12.2 FanDuel points, and he can be had for RB15 cost. Much like his teammate Garcon, the potential value makes him a worthwhile investment.
Others to Consider
Dak Prescott ($8,400) is off to another great start with 11 touchdown passes in five games. The 'Boys could throw a lot against the 49ers' 27th-ranked pass defense that has allowed three straight 300-plus yard games, and that would certainly would bode well for Prescott's outlook.
The same principle applies to Dez Bryant ($8,200). The Cowboys passing game could call it an early afternoon in this contest and Bryant is the 4th-most expensive wideout on the slate. This is in spite of the fact that he's cleared 60 receiving yards just once and has only produced a 43.8 percent catch rate on the season. It could be a breakout game for the veteran, but the risk outweighs the potential reward at this cost.
As for the Niners, rookie tight end George Kittle ($4,800) has been a pleasant surprise this season and has seen 17 targets over his last two contests. For the cost of the TE24, he provides considerable upside in a potentially pass-heavy San Francisco game script. It doesn't hurt his outlook that Beathard was his quarterback in college, either. If you're searching for a value pick at the position, Kittle is a name to consider.