Over/Under: 55
Patriots Implied Total: 29.00
Falcons Implied Total: 26.00
It's the rematch of one of the greatest Super Bowls in modern history, featuring two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and the high-powered offenses that support them. With an over/under of 55 in a week where no other game surpasses 48.5, this is easily the most lucrative contest on the slate, and almost every skill position player warrants consideration.
James White, RB, New England Patriots
FanDuel Price: $4,800
James White may very well have been the true MVP when the New England Patriots defeated the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI. In that epic contest, White took 6 carries for 29 yards and 2 touchdowns, while securing 14 of 16 targets for 114 yards and another score. And guess what?
There's virtually no chance he does it again on Sunday Night Football.
After all, the Pats spent most of the second half attempting to climb out of a 25-point deficit. As a result, White was peppered with targets as his team completed the most improbable comeback in Super Bowl history. Such a story line is unlikely to unfold in the rematch.
Still, the potential value here is still too great to ignore. The Patriots' backfield is as crowded as they come, but the only certainty is that White is cemented as the pass-catching threat. While the Falcons' pass defense has been better this year (more on that later), they have still surrendered 6.4 receptions per game to opposing tailbacks. White is one of the premier pass-catching runners in the league and is averaging 7 targets per contest. With an over/under of 55 points, this could be the finally be the week he finds pay dirt.
Both Mike Gillislee ($5,800) and the emerging Dion Lewis ($5,500) represent pricier investments, and White could outscore both of them. We project him for 9.6 FanDuel Points -- RB25 production (with upside for much more) for RB65 cost. White is a sensational flex option this week and a potentially premium value in tournaments.
Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
FanDuel Price: $8,700
As insane as this notion may have seemed mere weeks ago, any quarterback facing the Patriots is a must-start option. Over the first six weeks of the season, the Patriots defense is permitting a league-worst 324.8 passing yards and 2.33 touchdown passes per contest. They are also allowing an Adjusted Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per Play of 0.21, which is the 5th-worst tally in the league. For more information on NEP, check out our glossary.
Last week, Josh McCown lit them up for 354 yards and a pair of scores. In Week 7, reigning NFL MVP Matt Ryan is set to feast on the struggling unit. While Ryan hasn't played up to his 2016 standards with 6 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions across five starts, he's still averaging the 5th-most passing yards per game in the league (271) while completing 65.9 percent of his passes. While his $8,700 price point is the 2nd-highest on this slate, the potential reward is worth the hefty investment.
The Falcons are coming off a humbling home loss to the Miami Dolphins and are looking to avenge one of the most gut-wrenching Super Bowl defeats in NFL history,so expect Ryan to be at his very best. As a three-point underdog facing the league's worst pass defense in a match-up with such a sizable implied point total, he is worth every penny.
Others to Consider
You don't need me to tell you how great Tom Brady ($9,200) and Rob Gronkowski ($8,500) are. You also don't need me to tell you that they are the most expensive players at their respective positions on this slate. The Falcons pass defense has been markedly better this year -- only 210.4 yards allowed per contest -- although they are still permitting a generous 0.15 Adjusted Passing NEP per play. No one is gong to tell you not to invest in these two future Hall of Famers, but at such premium rates, this is an incredibly costly stack.
Brandin Cooks ($7,800) is an electric talent and one of the most efficient wideouts in the game, but his usage remains problematic. While his target share has increased to a healthier (but still reasonably modest) 18 percent as the season has worn on, he has yet to receive a single red zone look. For WR6 cost, that's somewhat concerning. Chris Hogan ($7,200) is coming off a 1-catch performance against the New York Jets secondary but is priced as the 14th-most expensive wideout on the slate. With a four-game touchdown streak sandwiched in the middle of two duds, his enormously high-ceiling is offset by his potentially week-ruining floor.
Julio Jones ($8,800) is always an elite play and always comes at an elite cost. A week after getting out-targeted by Austin Hooper and Taylor Gabriel, Jones could be in for a "get-back-on-track" match-up with the Patriots' woeful pass defense, particularly after head coach Dan Quinn expressed frustration with his top wideout's lack of usage. With no touchdowns on the season, he's overdue for some positive regression, and he could absorb more red zone targets in this game alone than he has to this point of the season (2). There are worse ideas than going for broke with Jones this week.
If Mohamed Sanu remains out with a hamstring injury, the aforementioned Austin Hooper ($5,000) would be a sensational value against a Patriots defense that is allowing 14.0 FanDuel points (3rd-most) per game to opposing tight ends. Hooper has accumulated 16 targets over his last two contests, and could find the end zone for the first time since Week 1 in such a favorable match-up. Taylor Gabriel ($6,500) could be a quality option as well, but his upside is baked into a lofty price point. The same can be said for stud running back Devonta Freeman ($7,800) and his tag team partner Tevin Coleman ($6,400).