Perhaps the answer in the backfield for the New England Patriots has been there all along this season. Here are how the Pats' four running backs rank with regard to Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per carry and Rushing Success Rate, which is the percentage of runs that positively impact NEP.
| Player | Carries | Rushing NEP | Rushing NEP Per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 43 | 6.40 | 0.15 | 44.19% |
| Rex Burkhead | 11 | 1.07 | 0.10 | 45.45% |
| James White | 27 | 0.70 | 0.03 | 59.26% |
| Mike Gillislee | 87 | -9.83 | -0.11 | 48.28% |
After an offseason in which they added Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead via free agency, it's Dion Lewis that is currently leading the team in Rushing NEP and Rushing NEP per carry. In fact, it's not even close.
Over the last three games, Lewis has seen his touches climb from 9 to 11 to 14 while playing 33.8 percent of the snaps. He still ranks behind James White at 40.28 percent during this time, but the more important trend as far as Lewis getting an opportunity has been Gillislee playing fewer than 20 percent of the snaps each of the last two weeks.
As noted here on numberFire in numerous spots, Lewis makes for a good start thanks to a nice matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers and is absolutely a sleeper to consider starting on your fantasy football squad this week.
The Chargers are actually bringing up the rear in numberFire's defensive metrics against the run and have allowed the third-most explosive run rate, per Sharp Football Stats.