1. Lamar Miller Continues to Befuddle
Lamar Miller is a tough cookie to crack. Entering Week 8, he had been between 14 and 19 carries in every game, making it look like there was a lid on his usage. It's hard to trust a guy in DFS when that's the case.
That lid got loosened a bit on Sunday, and it led to a big day for fantasy. Miller had 21 carries and 3 targets, converting two of those opportunities into touchdowns. Having an uptick in usage align with an uptick in fantasy production is frustrating because it means there's no true buying window on the changes.
Big days like this, though, make sense to an extent. Miller now has 31.8% of the team's red-zone chances this year, and that increases to 41.2% over the past three games. When that's in an offense clicking as well as Houston's, that can lead to some sweetness in a hurry.
It doesn't, though, mean Miller is necessarily a guy we can trust this weekend with the Texans as heavy favorites. Miller actually entered this week with a higher snap count in losses than wins for the team. In a loss in Week 8, he played 87.3% of the snaps. That's likely not a coincidence.
Here's a look at the way the team has divvied up carries this year based on the score of the game. It should illustrate why Miller is far from a slam dunk with the Texans opening as 12.5-point favorites for Week 9.
| Percentage of RB Carries | Trailing or Tied | Leading |
|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 68.6% | 61.3% |
| D'Onta Foreman | 22.5% | 33.8% |
| Alfred Blue | 4.9% | 5.0% |
D'Onta Foreman was demoted to third string for Sunday's game behind Alfred Blue, potentially reducing the threat he provides to Miller's usage. But with the way the team has cut into Miller's workload while leading in the past, how can we trust him as a huge favorite?
Right now, it seems to be that the best-case scenario for Miller is a high-scoring, close game. That's what we had on Sunday, and he came through. But if the team has a meaty lead, they could give carries to either Blue or Foreman, enough to justify fading Miller this week at $7,500 on FanDuel.
2. The Seahawks' Receivers Are Hard to Peg
In Week 7, Doug Baldwin freaked out, turning 12 targets into 92 yards and a touchdown while facing a tough secondary. It made it look like he could be a fun option for DFS in Week 8.
Instead, it was Paul Richardson and Tyler Lockett who did all the work, both eclipsing 100 yards while Richardson scored twice. Baldwin had 10 targets but finished with just 54 yards. These frustrating usages don't seem likely to end any time soon.
In order to get a great, hyper-usable asset for DFS, you want them to have a solid number of raw targets plus a healthy portion of high-leverage looks (targets either deep downfield or in the red zone). There just aren't players on this team who check both boxes.
Here's a look at the team's top two pass catchers in each target category this year.
| 2017 Target Leaders | Team Leader | Second on Team |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Targets | Doug Baldwin | Jimmy Graham |
| Deep Targets | Paul Richardson | Tyler Lockett |
| Red-Zone Targets | Jimmy Graham | Paul Richardson |
Baldwin's overall target market share is decent at 24.3%, but it comes with just 19.7% of the deep targets and 12.2% of the red-zone targets. He has just one look inside the red zone since Week 3. That's not great, Bob.
The chart above, though, does look pretty solid for Richardson and Jimmy Graham. They're the only guys who appear on the leaderboard in two separate categories, and for Richardson, it's the two that carry the most juice. It's still not easy to trust him.
In seven games this year, Richardson has never exceeded seven targets. He has logged more than 65 receiving yards just once, and that was on Sunday. He has also had fewer than four targets in two of his past four games. That's not a super reliable workload for DFS.
Perhaps, then, Graham is simply the best guy to go to here. He actually holds a commanding lead in red-zone market share at 29.27%, twice as high as the second-place Richardson. Graham's 17.9% overall market share is at least decent for his position, and at a position so dependent on touchdowns, it's the red-zone looks that matter more. He may be the one guy in this passing offense we can use in good faith.
With the Seahawks' offense now chugging, we do want to get pieces of these receivers. But when you do so, you're going to be taking a risk. None of them have usage that gets you giddy inside, and that usage has heavy week-to-week volatility. Graham's not a bad option, but the others leave much to be desired.