The Bills were flying high heading into their Thursday night game against the Jets, but now face more questions than answers.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Tennessee Titans | -3.47 | 5-3 | 52.70% | 17 | 21 | +3 |
| 21 | Atlanta Falcons | -2.09 | 4-4 | 9.90% | 12 | 24 | +1 |
| 20 | Buffalo Bills | -1.68 | 5-3 | 51.70% | 20 | 15 | -6 |
| 19 | Chicago Bears | -1.55 | 3-5 | 3.40% | 27 | 6 | 1 |
| 18 | Baltimore Ravens | 0.71 | 4-5 | 30.70% | 24 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 | Dallas Cowboys | 0.91 | 5-3 | 34.30% | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| 16 | Denver Broncos | 0.99 | 3-5 | 24.20% | 30 | 2 | -7 |
| 15 | Los Angeles Chargers | 1 | 3-5 | 18.60% | 13 | 17 | -2 |
| 14 | Green Bay Packers | 1.18 | 4-4 | 16.40% | 9 | 25 | -3 |
| 13 | New England Patriots | 1.83 | 6-2 | 98.00% | 1 | 30 | +2 |
The 34-21 victory was probably more predictable than it seemed, seeing as the Bills were winning in a way that tends not to be sustainable. In the loss, Buffalo averaged 4.4 yards per play and allowed 5.3. These were actually not far from the team’s season averages coming into the week, as the Bills had ranked 25th in yards per play (4.8) and 20th in yards allowed per play (5.3).
Despite getting routinely outgained, they still managed to start 5-2 thanks to a league-best +14 turnover margin. They only turned the ball over three times and had forced 17. A good turnover margin is important to winning games, but it also has very little predictive value.
On Thursday, we got a glimpse of this, as Buffalo turned the ball over three times and did not force a single one against a team that came into the game with a -1 turnover margin for the season. The Bills have been reliant on turnover success, but their rates on both sides of the ball in the first half are not sustainable.