Yahoo Ownership: 4%
DeShone Kizer's horrible real-world stats have masked the fact that he's been a solid fantasy quarterback when deployed in the right spots. A Week 14 home matchup with the Green Bay Packers profiles as such.
Per our schedule-adjusted metrics, Green Bay ranks 22nd in overall defense and 26th in pass defense. They've allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game (224.23) while also surrendering the seventh-highest net yards per attempt (6.8).
Kizer's running ability gives him some appealing upside. Over the past four weeks, he's racked up at least 39 rushing yards three times, giving you (roughly) a free passing touchdown in those games. On top of that, he's scored five rushing touchdowns this year, including three in his past five games -- a span in which he's been a QB1 (top-12 weekly performer) on three occasions.
| Week | Opponent | Rushing Yards | Fantasy Points | Weekly Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Vikings | 18 | 14.96 | QB12 |
| 10 | Lions | 57 | 22.98 | QB6 |
| 11 | Jaguars | 22 | 5.36 | QB26 |
| 12 | Bengals | 39 | 20.62 | QB10 |
| 13 | Chargers | 46 | 13.20 | QB20 |
That kind of ground production from a quarterback can paper over some passing warts.
And Kizer has passing warts, for sure. But he is coming off a decent showing last week in a rough road matchup against the stout defense of the Los Angeles Chargers. Kizer threw for 215 yards and added another 46 on the ground, playing turnover-free football -- something that he's been allergic to this season -- until the final two possessions, when the Cleveland Browns were in desperation mode.
Also, we have to mention Josh Gordon. In his debut last week, Gordon balled out against a very talented Chargers secondary. With Gordon back (and somehow still really good after a freakin' three-year absence), Corey Coleman healthy and David Njoku on the rise, the Browns have some exciting pass-game weapons around Kizer.
Look, I get it -- if you're fortunate enough to be playing meaningful fantasy games this time of the year, it's not easy to trust a quarterback like Kizer when everything is on the line. But he checks a lot of boxes this week -- rushing ability, at home and sweet matchup -- and is the cream of the crop in Week 14 among passers owned in less than 30% of Yahoo leagues.
Our projections have Kizer as this week's QB16, pegging him to score 16.33 fantasy points.