1. The Targets Are Spread Thin in Philadelphia
Our conclusion on Ajayi was that he wasn't getting a big enough piece of the pie to trust fully him with the changeover at quarterback. Unfortunately, it's looking like more of the same for the team's pass catchers.
The positive for them is that three players -- Torrey Smith, Nelson Agholor, and Alshon Jeffery -- all had 11 targets in Week 14. The negative is that this came on 49 targeted throws, giving each guy 22.4% of the targets. And that was with Zach Ertz on the sidelines. That's not a big enough share when Nick Foles is throwing the passes.
What makes things worse is that this isn't a new issue. Below are the target market shares for each of the main pieces since their Week 10 bye. Ertz's market shares come just from Week 11 through Week 13 with a deep target being classified as any throw that travels at least 16 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
| Past Four Games | Overall Targets | Deep Targets | Red-Zone Targets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 20.6% | 36.1% | 22.7% |
| Nelson Agholor | 21.3% | 30.6% | 36.4% |
| Zach Ertz | 19.3% | 7.4% | 16.7% |
It is encouraging that Jeffery and Agholor control a majority of the team's high-leverage targets. But those deep balls may not be as valuable (or as plentiful) coming from Foles, and the team may not generate as many red-zone chances with Wentz out. It really kills the vibe here.
Tack those concerns on to the increased volatility that comes with lower target market shares, and it becomes difficult to love any piece of this passing game. Agholor would be a bargain at $6,000 if Wentz were still healthy, but that's not the case anymore. While he'd likely be the ideal target here, we should take the same approach mentioned with Ajayi: see how Foles does against the Giants and proceed from there.
2. Dede Westbrook and Marqise Lee Have Predictable Usage
The Jacksonville Jaguars aren't the world's best passing offense, and they're not a team that goes out of its way to chuck the ball around the yard. But when they do, you know where the ball is going. There's plenty of value in that.
We've got a four-game sample since Dede Westbrook came off of injured reserve, and he has balled out in that time. He has 26.8% of their overall targets, 47.4% of the deep targets, and 28.6% of the red-zone targets. Those numbers will play no matter what offense he's in.
That's not to downplay anything in Marqise Lee. In Westbrook's first two games, Lee faced the coverage of Jason McCourty and Patrick Peterson, two of the league's better corners at shutting down opposing wide receivers. That's going to funnel a few more targets Westbrook's way.
In the two games since then, Lee has 36.1% of the team's air yards, according to FantasyADHD.com, and Westbrook's at 32.4%. They've basically been identical commodities in the two games without suffocing cornerback matchups. And both have been usable.
The big discrepancy between the two is price. While Lee is fully reasonable at $6,800 in Week 15, Westbrook is just $5,700. That's a massive bargain for Westbrook with all of the volume he has seen. It means -- and it's not even that frightening to say this -- we should feel safe about investing in a passing offense led by Blake Bortles. This is a wild year.
Because Westbrook caught a touchdown in Week 15 and is so cheap, he'll likely carry a good amount of ownership for Sunday's main slate. For the reasons mentioned above, there's nothing wrong with that. But it could also incentivize us to pay up to be contrarian and use Lee instead. Regardless, with the Jaguars pushing targets to just two different guys, they've suddenly become DFS darlings, and we should exploit that in a plus matchup with the Houston Texans this weekend.
3. Chris Hogan Shakes Up the Patriots
It has been a while since we've gotten to see Chris Hogan suit up for the New England Patriots with his last game prior to Week 14 being in October. While Hogan didn't do much in the stat sheet in his return, he absolutely shook up the way we have to view this offense.
Perhaps most importantly, Hogan returned to his regular snap rate, playing 55 of 61 snaps with Brandin Cooks at 60 and Danny Amendola at 50. Amendola led the team with nine targets, but his role is seemingly less sticky once Rob Gronkowski is no longer suspended. For all intents and purposes, we can go back to viewing this team the way we did prior to Hogan's injury.
Hogan validated that thought himself with his five targets, three of which were deep with one in the red zone. That was essentially what he was earlier in the year, too. While he may not get a huge number of targets, a good number of those that he does get will be in high-leverage spots.
The biggest loser in Hogan's return would likely be Cooks. He had just 17.1% of the team's targets on Monday after sitting at 22.7% in the games that Hogan missed. That's going to increase the volatility in his game logs without completely depriving him of his full upside.
If we're returning to the old status quo with this team, our process is this: just take stabs at this offense. We don't know who's going to be the guy who pops off in a given game, but all of them have the potential to do so. With a finger-licking shootout against the Pittsburgh Steelers next on the docket, it's frustrating not to know who our top option is. Because Cooks led the team with 177 air yards in Week 14 (Hogan was second with 107), Cooks is likely the guy to whom we should gravitate most. But all of Hogan, Gronkowski, and even Amendola should at least be on our radar.