In this game, you can attack it pretty much any way you want. The Steelers' defense the past few games makes it clear that all of the Patriots are in play, even with cornerback Joe Haden likely to return to practice this week. Don't fret about any of those assets. But on the Steelers' side, it's hard not to love all that Le'Veon Bell offers.
The Patriots' defense has done plenty recently to curtail the early-season narrative that their defense was hot trash. They've cut down opposing passing games by deploying a bend-but-don't-break approach, and for the most part, it has worked. But it has left them susceptible against the rush.
On the full season, the Patriots are now dead last in schedule-adjusted rushing efficiency, according to numberFire's metrics. They're worse than a Buffalo Bills defense we have mercilessly attacked with running backs the past two months. And it fully fits the narrative around their new defensive approach.
This is a tremendous boost for Bell, who is still 18th in Rushing Success Rate (the percentage of rushes that increase the team's expected points for the drive) out of 43 running backs with at least 80 rush attempts despite massive volume. They have kept his volume limited the past four games, maxing him out at 20 rush attempts in Week 12, meaning he's not completely gassed entering the contest. If the Steelers want to exploit this weakness, Bell should have the stamina to do it.
There are absolutely game flow concerns here with the Patriots being the Patriots and entering as three-point favorites. But that shouldn't be enough to scare us out of Bell.
The first reason there is pretty obvious in that Bell will get volume no matter what the script may be. In those past four games where the team has gone with a pass-happy approach, Bell has 21.5% of the team's targets. Work in the passing game gives a boost both to his floor and his ceiling, so negative game script is not a detriment. We just have to be sure the Steelers will score points, and with their implied team total being fourth highest on the main slate, Vegas believes that will be the case.
The second factor at play is that this game could easily wind up being tight throughout. If you look at the history between these two teams, you'll see that the Patriots have owned the Steelers, winning each of the past four meetings by an average of 15.25 points. That would make things seem grim. But it's also entirely misleading.
In the playoffs last year, the Steelers lost Bell 11 snaps into the game due to injury. In the regular season of 2016, Landry Jones was starting for Ben Roethlisberger. And in the season opener in 2015, they were again without Bell.
These two teams haven't played each other at full strength since November of 2013. That was Bell's rookie season when he was losing snaps to Jonathan Dwyer and Felix Jones. It's safe to say things are a bit different now than they were then.
If the Steelers can, indeed, keep things close, it'll make Bell a true dual threat in a high-scoring game with a plus matchup. We'll happily pay $9,400 for that on FanDuel.
On top of that, the touchdown upside here is pretty tasty. Bell has 47.7% of the team's carries plus targets inside the red zone this year; no other running back has gotten more than 44%. If you think the Steelers are going to score, then it's easy to see why Bell would be worth his price tag, allowing us to flood our rosters with exposure to him.