Yahoo Ownership: 73%
Sometimes, life just isn't fair. Derrick Henry owners know the struggle I'm talking about. After toiling behind an ineffective DeMarco Murray all season, you'd think Henry would have gotten his chance to lead the Tennessee Titans' backfield by now.
And the Titans would do well to make the switch to Henry, given that they're a likely playoff team who, you know, could benefit from playing their best players. The numbers support the case for Henry.
In almost every category of rushing effectiveness Henry bests Murray. Henry's 0.06 Rushing NEP per rush ranks fifth out of the 35 running backs with at least 100 carries this season. Murray's -0.11 clip ranks 30th. Henry's 45.11% Rushing Success Rate ranks fourth among that same group, whereas Murray's 31.13% Rushing Success Rate ranks 31st. And per Graham Barfield, Henry's missed tackle rate ranks 10th-best among 50 qualifying running backs this season, whereas Murray's ranks 26th.
But despite the fact that he should be getting more opportunity, he's not. In fact, he's only gotten more than 14 carries one time this season. He also hasn't reached double digit carries in either of the last two games.
So, headed into your final matchup, the dream of Henry as lead back is dead. If you held onto him this long, you did the right thing. His skillset combined with the role he'd adopt in the event of a Murray injury gave Henry league-winning potential, but the stars won't align in 2017.
Drop Henry for Kerwynn Williams, who has a starter's workload and an easy matchup against the New York Giants in Week 16.