Last year, Matt Ryan was lethal on throws traveling at least 16 yards downfield. His Success Rate on those throws -- the percentage of attempts that increase the team's expected points for the drive -- was 57.73%, tops in the entire league.
This year, it was 37.38%. Not only was that below average, but it was worse than Tom Savage at 38.46%. Tom. Freaking. Savage.
Although part of this disconnect was with Julio Jones, who caught just 38.89% of his deep targets, Taylor Gabriel may have been an even bigger culprit. Check out Gabriel's numbers on deep passes last year compared to this year. Target NEP shows the expected points added on those throws, including deductions for events such as interceptions and incompletions.
| Throwing Deep to Gabriel | Completions | Attempts | Yards | TDs | INTs | Target NEP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In 2016 | 6 | 11 | 251 | 3 | 0 | 19.86 |
| In 2017 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 0 | 1 | -8.47 |
Ya think Gabriel misses Kyle Shanahan? I'm guessing just a wee bit.
This matters because deep passes are the cheat code of the NFL. The average deep attempt nets 0.42 expected points for the offense while a shorter throw sits at just 0.14. If Ryan, can't connect with his receivers down the field, the upside and comeback potential for the offense are both severely restricted.
Of the quarterbacks in the playoffs, only Tyrod Taylor had a worse Success Rate than Ryan on deep passes this year. Although the Falcons' defense is far from perfect, this could be what prevents the team from getting a crack at redemption for last year's Super Bowl loss.