Arguably the most critical position battle heading into 2018 will be who will get the majority of work at running back for the Green Bay Packers. We want to tie our running backs to efficient quarterbacks, and they don't get much spicier than a healthy Aaron Rodgers. At least based on 2017 metrics, it looks like Aaron Jones should be that guy.
Green Bay as a team this year was just really good at running the football. They finished second in the league in schedule-adjusted rushing efficiency, according to our metrics, trailing only the Dallas Cowboys. Every high-volume back on this team had above-average metrics. But Jones' numbers the cream of this crop.
Here's a comparison of Jones to his teammates, Jamaal Williams and Ty Montgomery.
| In 2017 | Rushes | Rushing NEP per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 153 | 0.05 | 42.48% |
| Aaron Jones | 80 | 0.19 | 50.00% |
| Ty Montgomery | 71 | 0.00 | 50.70% |
Again, all of these guys were good as the league averages are -0.05 Rushing NEP per carry and a 38.08% Success Rate for running backs. But Jones certainly stood out.
Williams had more volume, but it's important to note that this wasn't a "fresh legs" scenario for Jones. He was essentially the team's lead back for three and a half games, a stretch that contained 62 of his 80 rushes for the year. In that window, his Success Rate was 52.46%. Even when Jones was a high-volume back, he was still beasting out.
It is worth noting that Jones wasn't as successful in the passing game as the other backs. His 18 targets resulted in -7.76 Target NEP while Williams and Montgomery were both positive. So it's very possible that one of them could fill a passing-down role with Jones operating in the earlier downs, putting a lid on Jones' potential of becoming a workhorse. However, he did get work in the passing game at UTEP, so we certainly can't just assume this inefficiency will be a constant throughout his career.
Even if he never develops into a pass-catching back, there's plenty of fantasy value in having a back with an early-down role if it's within Rodgers' offense. There's still a long way to go until we know who will get that work, but based on 2017's numbers, Jones seems to be the most deserving option.