In this piece, we're focusing just on each player's output as a rusher. That's not going to be the area from which Christian McCaffrey derives most of his value. But he was better than you may have expected there this year, and he looks pretty solid when compared to his teammate, Jonathan Stewart.
Things didn't start out so rosy for McCaffrey, though. Over the first eight games, he couldn't get anything going on the ground, topping 20 rushing yards just once. But he turned things around over the second half of the year, and he wound up looking pretty spicy.
| McCaffrey's Improvements | Rushes | Rushing NEP per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| First 8 Games | 49 | -0.23 | 26.53% |
| Final 8 Games | 68 | 0.06 | 48.53% |
If McCaffrey had held that second-half Success Rate for the entire season, he would have led the league. This guy was really good down the stretch.
Even when you include McCaffrey's struggles in the beginning, his full-season marks compare favorably to Stewart's.
| In 2017 | Rushes | Rushing NEP per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 198 | -0.12 | 36.36% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 117 | -0.06 | 39.32% |
Stewart carries a $5.2 million cap hit in 2018, which could lead to his release. If that were to happen, it wouldn't be a surprise to see McCaffrey's role expand in 2018.
McCaffrey led all running backs with 113 targets this year, giving him a steady base for fantasy value. An increase in his rushing workload would do wonders for both his floor and his ceiling.
The risks associated with McCaffrey are lesser than what's tied to the other backs in this piece because we know he'll at least have some sort of a role in 2018. However, the potential for increased usage may not be baked into his current price. He won't be cheap, but with McCaffrey's delicious rushing metrics down the stretch, it's worthwhile to sniff around and see what the cost of acquisition may be before that possibility becomes a reality.