Finally, we get to the biggest wild-card in this game: Nick Foles. He is an enigma, wrapped in a mystery, coated in a question, dipped in fudge and put on a stick (the Super Bowl is in Minnesota, after all), but he’s been lights-out in the playoffs in 2017 -- particularly in the NFC Championship Game -- and is the key to making the Eagles’ offense go.
We mentioned before how the RPO has allowed Foles to press the “easy button” on pass defenses this year, and that kind of simplification should help him remain mistake-free in this game – and that will be crucial. Across the NFL, teams won 71.8 percent of the time this season when they did not turn the ball over (64.1 percent with one or fewer turnover), earning a 7.48-point differential (4.82 with one turnover).
Foles himself might be at a slight advantage playing away from home, too; while this isn’t a traditional road game, Foles has been better on the road for his career.
| Nick Foles | Away | Home | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 22 | 26 | N/A |
| Completion Percentage | 60.28% | 59.93% | 0.35% |
| Interception Rate | 2.29% | 1.90% | 0.39% |
| Touchdown Rate | 5.56% | 3.22% | 2.34% |
| Yards Per Attempt | 7.32 | 6.74 | 0.58 |
They are marginal increases, but every detail will matter in this game.
Perhaps one more marginal benefit: Foles has thrown 56.1 percent fewer interceptions against bottom-half defenses, while he’s thrown 37.1 percent more touchdown passes against these teams. The Patriots are the 17th-ranked defense, per our metrics, in the second half of 2017; just barely bottom-half of the league.
Whether Foles will be a goat or the G.O.A.T. for his Super Bowl LII performance, we aren't sure yet. It's unlikely he'll be able to match the explosiveness of Tom Brady's offense, so he needs to take advantage of good matchups, play without mistakes, and hope his defense helps him pull off a Minneapolis Miracle.