Win Probability Swing: Eagles -20.21%

It wasn't all sunshine and daisies on that drive for the Eagles. Before Ertz's touchdown, Agholor's string of catches, and Ertz's conversion, their win odds hit rock bottom.

It was 3rd and 1 on the 45-yard line. Foles hit Torrey Smith in the flat, and Devin McCourty brought him down right away. It set up that Ertz conversion, but things weren't looking so hot at the time.

Let's go on a little journey, shall we? We've spent plenty of time discussing this drive, meaning it was clearly the most impactful series of the game. What were the Eagles' win odds on each play? Here's a visualization of that.

That low point was the completion to Smith that brought up fourth down. In fact, it was the Eagles' lowest point of the entire game as they were never below 33% outside of that. By the end of the drive, they were all the way up to 84.85%. This thing should live in Philly lore forever.

But it didn't clinch victory for the Eagles. That, instead, came after the Patriots got the ball back, bringing us to the biggest play in Super Bowl LII.