Win Probability Swing: Patriots +12.55%
Early in the fourth quarter, an Elliott field goal put the Eagles on top, 32-26. As you know, it didn't finish that way. The Patriots drove down the field and eventually took the lead. Danny Amendola was a big part of that.
Earlier in the drive, the Patriots had the ball on their own 46. It was 3rd and 3, and they needed a conversion. Brady hit Amendola for a seven-yard gain, pushing the ball to the Eagles' 47. Then he found Amendola again on the next play.
This time, it was a 30-yard gain, bringing the Patriots down to the Eagles' 17-yard line. That catch inflated the Patriots' win odds back above the midway mark at 51.25%. After yet another Amendola catch on the next play, it was Rob Gronkowski's turn to finish things off shortly after.
TB12 to @RobGronkowski...
AGAIN.
Touchdown, @Patriots! #SBLII #NotDone pic.twitter.com/P7nh7Keowv
— NFL (@NFL) February 5, 2018
Gronk's second tuddy gave the Patriots 62.44% odds of claiming the trophy. That was before the Eagles went on that huge drive in the fourth. We'll get back to that in a second, but first, we've gotta talk a little trickeration.