As mentioned in the section on Jeffery, deep passes carry more value than the bunny throws. Therefore, we should expect Marvin Jones to outperform a guy like Golden Tate, and that's exactly what happened in 2017. But Jones' performance is noteworthy for another reason, and it should alter the way we assume the targets will be divvied up for the Detroit Lions next year.
The Lions have four spicy pass-catching options locked up through at least 2019: Jones, Tate, Eric Ebron, and Kenny Golladay. All four seem to have loads of talent, and in a vacuum, we should want to invest in these guys in fantasy football. But it may be a situation where there are just too many mouths to feed.
Here's a look at the metrics for the team's four receivers who logged at least 40 targets this year (throwing T.J. Jones into the mix and excluding Ebron). Again, Tate's metrics will be influenced by his role, but all four of these guys had great numbers.
| In 2017 | Targets | Target NEP | Target NEP per Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 120 | 25.74 | 0.21 |
| Marvin Jones | 107 | 60.90 | 0.57 |
| T.J. Jones | 49 | 21.43 | 0.44 |
| Kenny Golladay | 48 | 21.77 | 0.45 |
Jones ranked second in the league in Target NEP per target among those with at least 80 targets, trailing only Tyreek Hill. He was tremendous. That could have some ripple effects for the future.
First, if the Lions are trying to operate in an optimal manner, they should be trying to push the ball downfield more often. Stafford finished second in the league in expected points added per deep attempt among quarterbacks with at least 50 deep balls. Yet he still ranked just 20th (out of 30) in the percentage of throws that traveled at least 16 yards downfield. If a guy is good at chucking it deep, why not let him do so more often?
If they were to go down that road (which is clearly far from a guarantee, especially with Jim Bob Cooter returning as offensive coordinator under new head coach Matt Patricia), it would have an immediate effect on Tate's fantasy value. He led the team with a 21.5% overall target market share this year, but just 7.5% of his targets were of the deep variety. He finished 15th in half-PPR points scored at the position despite playing all 16 games. If his target share were to go down, it would make him a lot harder to stomach in the middle rounds of drafts.
Second, Jones' abilities may delay the breakout of Golladay. Babytron was awesome when healthy this year, but even when his snap rate went up, he had trouble commanding a heavy target share.
Golladay played at least 75% of the snaps in each of the Lions' final five games. In that five-game stretch, here's how the team distributed its targets.
| Final 5 Games | Overall Targets | Deep Targets | Red-Zone Targets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 21.4% | 7.1% | 11.1% |
| Eric Ebron | 20.8% | 0.0% | 27.8% |
| Marvin Jones | 15.6% | 46.4% | 16.7% |
| Kenny Golladay | 13.3% | 28.6% | 11.1% |
Golladay didn't have enough targets to hold a steady floor, and he didn't get as many deep targets as Jones to give him a ceiling. That would be a concern for 2018.
Jones' solid metrics likely don't foretell a huge breakout for him in 2018. Rather, they make it appear as if this team could be a headache for fantasy again. Having loads of talent is great if you're Stafford or Patricia, but it also caps the target share upside of each piece within the offense. The Lions are a fun team, and Jones is a big part of that, but we're going to be in for a rough ride if all four of these guys are still in house at the start of the season.