Deep Rate: 23.30% | Passing NEP per Attempt: 0.46 | Success Rate: 43.69%
You could view Jameis Winston as a good counterpoint to the Wentz argument. Even though the Tampa Bay Buccaneers also invested in their vertical offense by adding DeSean Jackson, Winston failed to make the leap, both in the real world and fantasy. That, though, would be an inaccurate assessment.
Let's compare Winston's numbers on deep passes over the past two years. You would have assumed before the year that the addition of Jackson would help bolster his abilities down the field. Despite the perception of Winston's 2017, that actually is what happened.
| Winston's Deep Passes | Deep Rate | Touchdowns | Interceptions | Passing NEP per Attempt | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In 2016 | 21.69% | 11 | 9 | 0.33 | 39.84% |
| In 2017 | 23.30% | 9 | 4 | 0.46 | 43.69% |
Not only did Winston throw deep more often, but he did so more successfully. That was despite playing through injury part of the year. Even if we didn't notice it, there were some positives in this offense.
You'll also notice in that chart above that Winston has been an aggressive deep-ball thrower each of the past two years. He ranked third among relevant passers in 2016. With both Jackson and Mike Evans back and first-round pick O.J. Howard gaining an additional offseason of work, there are pieces in place that could make this offense hum. It's just a question of whether or not that will happen.
It's hard to get too jazzed about the pieces here after the season they had and with the coaching staff coming back. It doesn't mean we should jump ship, though. If Winston can stay healthy, it's possible we finally get that long-awaited breakout. Given that this will be just Winston's age-24 season, that's not as unrealistic as it may feel.