2017 ADP: 165th Overall
2018 ADP: Undrafted
Difference: -85

With how depleted the tight end position is in fantasy these days, this one is absolutely baffling. Over the last three years, Charles Clay has proven to be nothing but reliable as a safety valve for the Buffalo Bills, catching between 50 and 60 passes for 546 yards per season.

The only disappointing thing about Clay is his lack of upside. He hasn't had more than 4 touchdowns despite playing at least least 13 games in all 3 seasons in Buffalo. That said, Clay has improved in every year with the Bills, earning 0.50 Reception NEP per target in 2015, to 0.55 in 2016, and 0.62 in 2017.

The one worrisome quality for Clay is that new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll averaged just 55 targets to his top tight end in his most 2 recent years as an offensive coordinator, back in 2011 and 2012. But if we assume that Clay’s targets drop to around 60 in 2018 (which would be a five-year low) and he maintains his efficiency, he’d still turn in about 108.5 PPR fantasy points, good for a top-20 finish at his position last year.

Put that target mark at Clay’s Buffalo average, and he’d be top-10. There’s little downside to him this late in drafts.