Philip Rivers is being drafted as a low-end starting fantasy quarterback this season, going off the board 12th in MFL10 drafts and 13th on FantasyFootballCalculator.

He tied for 5th in the NFL with passing 28 touchdowns in 2017, ranked 4th with 33 scores in 2016, tied for 12th with 29 in 2015 and ranked 8th with 31 in 2014. With the correlation between passing touchdowns and fantasy points established, drafters seem to be projecting a big dropoff in touchdowns for Rivers.

But a deeper look at the numbers reveals that his touchdown upside is as high as ever.

The Los Angeles Chargers aren't projected to be an elite offense, but the 357 over/under set for their points for this season still sits as an above-average mark.

We can also expect a disproportionate amount of that scoring to come through the air. They scored 2.8-times more passing than rushing touchdowns in 2017 (the 10th-highest mark in the NFL), and that comes after posting the 4th-highest mark in 2016 and the highest in 2015.

Those scoring numbers are no fluke as the Chargers rank sixth in red-zone pass-to-run ratio over those three seasons, and Rivers' 248 red-zone pass attempts rank third in the NFL in that time.

Our models are even higher on the Chargers than we are the 49ers, ranking the Bolts' offense seventh in the NFL. Combining that with the Vegas line for their scoring and the Chargers' established track record of throwing in the red zone, Rivers continues to offer the big touchdown upside he has established consistently over the last few years.