Marcus Mariota is the definition of a post-hype breakout considering his depressed price and last season's QB7 ADP. The QB18 in 2017, Mariota's QB17 ADP doesn't account for his vastly improved situation.
The Tennessee Titans replaced the archaic 'exotic smashmouth' combination of Terry Robiskie and Mike Mularkey with new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur, who has a proven track record for leading quarterbacks to success. As the quarterbacks coach in Atlanta in 2016, LaFleur -- a Kyle Shanahan disciple -- helped propel Matt Ryan to career highs (and league bests) in touchdown rate (7.1%) and yards per attempt (9.3). Last year, LaFleur served as the Los Angeles Rams' offensive coordinator as Jared Goff ranked fourth in the league in touchdown rate (5.9%) and second in yards per attempt (8.0).
The Titans added versatile back Dion Lewis and should get second-year leaps from playmakers Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor, and Jonnu Smith. The offensive line ranked third in Pro Football Focus' pass-blocking efficiency last year, and we have them in the top half of the heading into 2018. Despite battling ankle and hamstring issues for most of last season, Mariota has ranked top eight in quarterback rushing yards in each of the last two years, elevating his weekly floor and ceiling in fantasy.
Most importantly, he's one of the league's strongest touchdown regression candidates at the quarterback position. And as we've learned in the past, abnormally high and low touchdown rates tend to regress to the mean the following year.
A strong touchdown regression candidate with improved coaching, exciting weapons, a great offensive line and bankable rushing totals, Mariota is a major sleeper and an ideal late-round quarterback to target in drafts. --Eli Weiner