ADP: 12.06 (RB51)
Taking Matt Breida in the 10th would be a reach, but he's worth including in this list as a high-upside dart throw who can be had for cheap.
For every guy going this late, it takes some work to craft a tale in which they end up seeing significant touches. For Breida, it would likely mean something would have to happen to Jerick McKinnon, with that something being an injury or McKinnon playing terribly. That's because the 49ers gave McKinnon a bunch of cash this offseason -- making him the fourth-highest paid running back by average annual value -- and they didn't do that so Breida could play over him.
But there's reason to be skeptical of McKinnon's ability to serve as a workhorse running back. He's never carried it more than 159 times in a season, and in his two high-volume years, he failed to perform very well.
| Season | Carries | Yards | Yards Per Carry | Touchdowns |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 159 | 539 | 3.4 | 2 |
| 2017 | 150 | 570 | 3.8 | 3 |
While yards per carry isn't some all-encompassing stat, those yards-per-carry clips ranked 32nd (2017) and 37th (2016) among qualified backs in those two campaigns. And the low touchdown totals are worth noting, as well, as that hasn't been a strength of McKinnon's game. He's got just 7 career rushing touchdowns on 474 total carries.
I want to be clear -- McKinnon is probably going to get every chance to seize something close to an every-down role. Money talks. But it's not a lock that McKinnon runs away with that role, and his lack of touchdown production could open the door for Breida to be deployed as a goal-line guy.
There's also this: Breida flashed last year as a rookie, and a report this summer listed him as the best running back on the team. Last year, he was usually the fresh-legs back who was coming in to spell the starter, so we should take Breida's numbers with heaps of salt. But among backs with at least 100 carries in 2017, Breida was the third-best running back on a per-carry basis, according to our metrics, and he ran circles around his fellow San Fran backfield mates.
Oh, and McKinnon is already banged up with a knee issue, putting him out of action for the rest of the preseason, although Breida (shoulder) is out, as well.
All in all, there's enough here to make Breida a worthwhile roll of the dice with one of your last picks. This is going to be a team we want to target -- we project the Niners to be the ninth-best offense -- and Breida checks some boxes as a late-round sleeper.