Why This Is Bold: Carson Wentz was arguably the league's MVP before tearing his ACL last year, and he's currently being picked up as the QB7 in fantasy football drafts.

Why This Will Happen: Part of the reason Wentz was so valuable last year was because he had a 7.50% touchdown rate, when the league's average rate was 4.23%. Sure, Wentz isn't some league-average passer, but sustaining his 2017 touchdown rate will be no easy task. Because since 2000, we've had 19 instances where a signal-caller had 200 or more attempts while hitting a 7.00% touchdown rate. Of those 19 occurrences, 16 passers have next-season data. And among those 16 quarterbacks, none saw an increase in touchdown rate the following year, with the average decrease in rate being 2.69%.

Wentz is also recovering from an ACL tear, so there's no telling how mobile and able he'll be at the start of the season. And the quarterback position is deeper than Atlantis, which means there's plenty of competition to finish as a QB1 this year.