Why This Is Bold: Mike Evans usually gets drafted at the tail-end of the second round, while Hogan falls off the board at the end of the fourth.

Why This Will Happen: In 2017, we saw that Mike Evans' target share can be influenced by added weapons to the offense. His share of Tampa Bay's targets was close to 30% two season ago, but his biggest competition for targets was also Adam Humphries. The team added DeSean Jackson and rookies Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard to the mix last year, and we saw Evans' extrapolated target share drop by about 5%.

Godwin and Howard now have a year under their belt, DeSean Jackson may take on a different role in the offense to increase his effectiveness, and Jameis Winston is suspended for the first three games of the season. It's not that we should believe Evans will bust this year, it's just easy to see how he may not live up to his average draft position.

Meanwhile, everything's looking up for Chris Hogan. He's got one of the best quarterbacks in the league throwing him the ball, New England lost Brandin Cooks over the offseason, and the team will be without Julian Edelman for the first four games of the season. Even when Edelman returns, Hogan will serve as the team's primary outside threat and should see plenty of looks.

And let's not forget, prior to an injury that essentially ended Hogan's worth in fantasy football last year -- so the first eight weeks of the season -- we saw him with a 13.56 PPR points per game average, which was just as strong as Mike Evans' rate a season ago.

If Hogan comes close to his ceiling while some of Tampa Bay's younger threats emerge, it's not crazy to think Hogan can outscore Evans in fantasy football this year.