Why This Is Bold: Brees is coming off of a season where he threw only 23 touchdowns, and the Saints are a run-friendly team these days.

Why This Will Happen: The way touchdowns are scored can be random. In 2017, New Orleans scored as many rushing touchdowns as passing touchdowns, which is something that's happened only 17 times over the last seven years. Of the 13 teams where we've got next-season data, we've seen an average increase in passing-to-rushing-touchdown ratio of 1.30. Meaning, just by this normal increase, if the Saints scored 46 touchdowns once again, we're looking at 32 passing touchdowns and 14 rushing touchdowns for New Orleans.

It's not as though Brees was bad last year, either -- he had the fourth-highest adjusted net yards per attempt rate of his career. And it's also not like the Saints were some run-heavy team close to the end zone -- they were 19th in pass-to-rush ratio at the goal line and 13th in the red zone last year.

Positive regression is coming for the Saints' passing attack.