Over/Under: 49.5
Saints Implied Team Total: 29.50
Buccaneers Implied Team Total: 20.00
With the largest Week 1 (Saints -9.5) spread, this game doesn't project to be as exciting as the Pats-Texans shootout. But that doesn't mean there isn't plenty of fantasy production ripe for the picking. There are numerous storylines that deserve our attention, from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense sans Jameis Winston to the New Orleans Saints' backfield without Mark Ingram. What we learn about snaps and touches from this game should help guide our decisions about these teams over the next few weeks.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
FanDuel Price: $8,700
The biggest issue with paying up for Alvin Kamara last season was his projected volume. Not only did he deliver production regardless, but with Ingram on a four-game suspension, Kamara's projected workload finally matches his price. Indeed, numberFire's projections have him slated for 21 total touches and more fantasy points than any running back on the slate. There's a reason his price tag is what is is. But more than just bankable volume, the Saints being huge favorites is actually a boon to Kamara's value. Check out his splits when the Saints were favored last season:
With a projected bellcow workload and the lead back on the highest implied team total on the slate, Kamara is worth every penny in Week 1.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FanDuel Price: $7,700
Let's be honest, rostering Mike Evans here isn't for the faint of heart. He's expensive, coming off a down season, doesn't have his starting quarterback, and on top of all of that, he should lock horns with New Orleans' young stud corner Marshon Lattimore. On the flip side, all of those factors should keep his ownership below 5%, so he makes for the ideal contrarian GPP play. After all, his ceiling hasn't gone anywhere, and Evans is primed for positive regression in the touchdown department. And while not having Winston behind center likely hurts the overall ceiling of the offense, Evans actually had better numbers playing with Ryan Fitzpatrick last season.
It's possible there's some small sample size noise in there, but the point stands that Evans has proven production with Fitzpatrick running the offense. And while the price tag is certainly high, Evans was eighth in the league in targets per game last season (9.1), so there isn't reason to worry about his workload.
The matchup could be better than what appears on the surface, too. New Orleans allowed the third-most catches of 20-plus yards last season, and Evans wins big downfield, as evidenced by ranking fifth in air yards last season. Playing in catch-up mode in a better-than-advertised matchup, Evans could be a week-winner for those contrarians looking to differentiate their lineups.
Others to Consider
A Drew Brees ($8,400) and Michael Thomas ($8,500) stack is always in play, but similar to Watson and Hopkins, it's tough to find the money to balance the rest of your lineup when you're paying up so much for both. This stack is more viable in cash considering both players displayed rock-solid floors a season ago.
Ted Ginn Jr. ($6,200) makes for an intriguing GPP dart throw given his reasonable price and big-play ability. Similar to the Saints, Tampa Bay surrendered the third-most receptions of 20 or more yards last season, an ideal weakness for Ginn and his speed to exploit. It also doesn't hurt that Ginn is playing at home in a game with a large over/under, which led to his boom weeks a year ago.
Peyton Barber ($5,600) is in play on cost alone, considering he won the starting running back job in camp and his price hasn't adjusted accordingly. The Saints are technically a good matchup, after giving up 4.4 yards per carry last season, which was fifth-worst in the league. The issue was New Orleans led so frequently that teams often abandoned the run, evidenced by the Saints facing just 25.4 rushing attempts per game in 2017 (23rd in the NFL). With the biggest spread of the week, game script remains a large concern for Barber's outlook despite his appealing price.
The New Orleans D/ST ($4,600) is definitely in play, as well. Tampa Bay is tied for the fourth-lowest implied point total on the slate and Fitzpatrick isn't necessarily known for protecting the football. They offer a nice pivot from the chalky Ravens defense in GPPs.