| Rank | Team | nERD | Projected Record | Playoff Odds | Super Bowl Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Atlanta Falcons | 1.71 | 8.1-7.9 | 34.6% | 2.2% | 10 | 20 |
| 11 | Seattle Seahawks | 1.92 | 8.2-7.8 | 38.1% | 3.2% | 15 | 11 |
| 10 | Carolina Panthers | 2.31 | 8.4-7.6 | 40.2% | 3.4% | 19 | 7 |
| 9 | Green Bay Packers | 2.69 | 8.5-7.5 | 42.5% | 2.9% | 3 | 29 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Chargers | 4.45 | 9.4-6.6 | 65.9% | 6.9% | 7 | 9 |
| 7 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 4.75 | 9.3-6.7 | 64.1% | 6.6% | 14 | 3 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Rams | 4.93 | 8.8-7.2 | 50.5% | 4.7% | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 5.04 | 9.4-6.6 | 67.6% | 7.3% | 4 | 17 |
| 4 | New England Patriots | 5.99 | 10.0-6.0 | 77.8% | 9.8% | 2 | 13 |
| 3 | New Orleans Saints | 6.45 | 9.4-6.6 | 62.9% | 7.4% | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | Minnesota Vikings | 6.68 | 9.5-6.5 | 63.2% | 8.1% | 8 | 1 |
| 1 | Philadelphia Eagles | 7.5 | 10.0-6.0 | 70.7% | 10.0% | 6 | 2 |
The Chargers are the highest ranked team that did not make the 2017 playoffs, but Los Angeles was certainly playoff caliber last season.
Only four teams bested their +7.4 nERD rating, and they also had the ninth-best point differential and fifth-best yards per play differential (+0.6). As has been the case in recent years, this strong performance was undone by failings in close games and on special teams.
Los Angeles went 3-5 in one-score games last year and was 31st in Special Teams NEP. These have been sore spots for the franchise recently, but we should still put more stock into a team’s offensive and defensive performance when trying to project future success.
The most important elements of offense and defense are the ability to pass and stop the pass, respectively. The Chargers look like a team that will again be strong in both areas.
As for that offense, quarterback Philip Rivers will turn 37 before the end of the season, but was also one of the best passers in the league last year. Only Tom Brady averaged more Passing NEP per drop back and Rivers was also seventh in success rate (the percentage of plays that yield positive NEP).
He’ll be playing in front of a defense that tied for the third fewest net yards per pass allowed in 2017 and is projected by numberFire to rank fifth against the pass.
Each season, there always seems to be a team that makes a splash after missing the playoffs the previous season. The Chargers look like a good bet to be that team this year.