| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Cincinnati Bengals | -1.44 | 1-0 | 37.8% | 9 | 17 | +5 |
| 21 | San Francisco 49ers | -1.06 | 0-1 | 21.7% | 28 | 21 | -6 |
| 20 | Dallas Cowboys | -0.83 | 0-1 | 19.8% | 24 | 16 | -3 |
| 19 | Kansas City Chiefs | -0.67 | 1-0 | 42.9% | 6 | 31 | -3 |
| 18 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.6 | 1-0 | 25.4% | 1 | 30 | +6 |
| 17 | Chicago Bears | -0.49 | 0-1 | 20.6% | 14 | 18 | +4 |
| 16 | Houston Texans | -0.39 | 0-1 | 32.8% | 23 | 22 | -2 |
| 15 | Atlanta Falcons | 0.08 | 0-1 | 35.2% | 21 | 23 | -3 |
| 14 | Seattle Seahawks | 1.28 | 0-1 | 30.5% | 18 | 20 | -3 |
| 13 | Green Bay Packers | 2.19 | 1-0 | 49.6% | 15 | 19 | -4 |
On Saturday, it probably would not have surprised anyone to learn that the top-ranked offense in the NFL was playing in the Tampa Bay-New Orleans game. However, you'd lose people telling them that this offense would belong to Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Buccaneers, though that is where we stand after Tampa Bay's 48-40 win in the Superdome.
In all likelihood, the Bucs won't remain the number one offense all season, but this was a unit that we projected to be above-average before the season (we had them at 13 heading into Week 1).
Fitzpatrick threw for 417 yards and 4 touchdowns, and completed 21-of-28 passes. He is at the top of the passing Net Expected Points -- essentially points added to team drives -- leaderboard, with 30.7, and while he did average a ridiculous 19.9 yards per completion, his strong day wasn't solely the product of a small number of big plays.
His Passing Success Rate of 64.3% was also the second best of the week; success rate measures the percentage of plays that yield positive NEP and you can read more about both success rate and NEP here.
Problematically for Tampa Bay, the only passer who was more efficient was Drew Brees, who had 33 successes on 46 dropbacks, good for a 71.7% success rate.
The combination of the Bucs' offensive explosion and poor defensive performance resulted in the highest-scoring Week 1 game since at least 1940. The two teams also combined for 1,004 yards, the sixth-most in a season opener and the second-most for a game that did not go into overtime.
Unlike the offense, this kind of performance was in line for what we expected from the Tampa Bay defense. We projected the unit to rank 31st before the season after it finished 27th last year.