| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T22 | Denver Broncos | -0.96 | 2-0 | 44.7% | 12 | 16 | +1 |
| T22 | San Francisco 49ers | -0.96 | 1-1 | 28.8% | 25 | 19 | -1 |
| 21 | Kansas City Chiefs | -0.94 | 2-0 | 50.3% | 1 | 32 | -2 |
| 20 | Houston Texans | -0.11 | 0-2 | 18.8% | 21 | 20 | -4 |
| 19 | Seattle Seahawks | 0.05 | 0-2 | 16.1% | 27 | 12 | -5 |
| 18 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.2 | 2-0 | 41.0% | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| 17 | Green Bay Packers | 0.45 | 1-0-1 | 41.7% | 18 | 23 | -4 |
| 16 | Dallas Cowboys | 0.47 | 1-1 | 35.7% | 23 | 9 | 4 |
| 15 | Atlanta Falcons | 0.55 | 1-1 | 50.8% | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| 14 | Chicago Bears | 0.63 | 1-1 | 35.7% | 19 | 6 | 3 |
| 13 | Cincinnati Bengals | 0.64 | 2-0 | 59.5% | 5 | 11 | 9 |
Our tour of 2-0 teams continues with a brief stop in Denver before the main attraction: a Chiefs team that we rate as below average.
The Broncos not ranking higher is not that surprising, given they won by a combined four points in two home games against mediocre competition. The Chiefs, however, went on the road twice and beat a pair of teams we view as among the league's best. Led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, they looked impressive doing it, too.
Well, on one side of the ball at least. In terms of success rate, Kansas City actually has a putrid minus-8.6% differential thanks to their bottom-of-the-barrel defense.
The story is similar in Tampa Bay, where the Bucs' offense has looked impressive while the defense has not, contributing to a minus-6.5% success rate margin.
Of these four teams, our model is most excited about the Bengals, who seem to be more well-rounded. However, even they have a negative success rate differential (-1.5%). Their defense has gotten a boost by a forcing a turnover every fifth drive, but this is not a sustainable means of success.