Week 3 was supposed to be Sony Michel's breakout. Instead, he and the rest of the New England Patriots offense struggled to get anything going in their surprising loss to their former defensive coach Matt Patricia's Detroit Lions. Michel sat by and watched as fellow rookie Kerryon Johnson broke the Lions' ridiculous 70-game dry spell without a 100-yard rusher.

Michel certainly disappointed in fantasy. Despite playing the Lions 28th-ranked rush defense, he managed only 50 yards on 14 rushes while turning 3 targets into 1 reception and -1 yard. But beneath those superficial numbers, he actually wasn't that bad for the Patriots. He posted an above-average 50% Rushing Success Rate, which measures the percentage of rushes that generate positive expected points for a team.

"Actually wasn't that bad" isn't the strongest vote of confidence for a running back, but hear me out. The Patriots are 7-point home favorites this weekend against the Miami Dolphins. Chris Raybon highlighted the strong correlation between running back performances and being home favorites back in 2017, and the same reasoning applies to Michel this Sunday.

Michel had the dominant share of the running back carries in an uncharacteristic game where they only ran 47 offensive plays, and figures to pick up more opportunities with Rex Burkhead headed to the IR -- particularly on the goal line. He should be able to leverage those opportunities into significant yardage against a Dolphins defense that is allowing 83 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, which has come against teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in our rushing metrics.

This is a bounce-back spot for the Pats and a blow-up spot for Sony Michel.