You know we save the best and boldest for last. My final bold prediction for Week 5 is that the two top-scoring fantasy running backs will play in the same game when the New York Giants visit the Carolina Panthers.
Both Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey have been elite running backs to start the season, but neither has finished a single week as one of the top two running backs. That's going to change in Week 5.
Barkley (20.75) and McCaffrey (22.66) are both averaging over 20 touches per game, and both the Giants (24.00) and the Panthers (21.66) have faced over 20 running back touches per game since the beginning of the season. They've faced that much volume from opposing running backs because they've both been bad at defending them; the Panthers are our 24th-ranked rush defense and the Giants are our 29th-ranked rush defense. It's surprising, too, because both teams have faced backup running backs in those games.
The Panthers are missing Cam Newton's favorite target in Greg Olsen, and WR1 Devin Funchess should be facing off against Janoris Jenkins, who has held Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins to under 90 receiving yards. That means Newton should be funneling targets to McCaffrey against a Giants defense allowing the fifth-most targets (37) to opposing running backs.
On the other side of the ball, the Panthers haven't been yielding a ton of fantasy points to opposing running backs (they've allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position), but they also haven't faced an opposing team's RB1 since Week 1. And yet, they still rank just 24th against the run with a 4.62 rating according to our power rankings. The Giants will likely have to -- and be able to -- rely on Barkley with Eli Manning struggling to get anything going through the air.
The game itself projects to be on the lower side of scoring; the game total of 44.5 is our third-lowest on this week's slate. That means it shouldn't get too out of hand, so neither back is likely to be scripted out of the game. It's perfectly set up for a slugfest between two of the game's elite running backs, and should launch Barkley and McCaffrey to the top two spots on the weekly leaderboards at the position.